Prediction scores
Every prediction we made for a night whose setlist we now know, scored against what actually got played.
7
Shows scored
12.374
Average score
-0.016
Average skill
18.4%
Average F1
17.1%
Top-5 hit rate
These numbers look low, and they should. Phish are deliberately unpredictable — they rotate songs on purpose and enjoy wrong-footing exactly this kind of model, and 100 would mean calling an entire setlist. Read Skill, not the raw score: it measures how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs the model actually captured. Beating that baseline at all is the achievement.
| Date | Venue | Score | Skill | F1 | Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City | 11.46/100 | -6.2% | 18.2% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-22 | Madison Square Garden, New York | 14.92/100 | 11.2% | 27.3% | 3.2.0 / 3.2.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-21 | Empower Federal Credit Union Amphitheater at Lakeview, Syracuse | 13.59/100 | -2.5% | 17.6% | 3.2.0 / 3.2.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-19 | Merriweather Post Pavilion, Columbia | 20.24/100 | -1.2% | 30.3% | 3.1.0 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-18 | Merriweather Post Pavilion, Columbia | 4.7/100 | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.0.0 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-17 | Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek, Raleigh | 16.53/100 | -2.5% | 23.5% | pre-1.1 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-15 | ENMARKET ARENA, Savannah | 5.18/100 | -14.4% | 6.1% | pre-1.1 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
Scores shown here are ones already computed and cached. Scoring a night rebuilds a full baseline prediction to measure Skill against, so this page never computes them on the fly — “score it” does one date on request.