Prediction scores
Every prediction we made for a night whose setlist we now know, scored against what actually got played.
13
Shows scored
16.878
Average score
-0.011
Average skill
23.1%
Average F1
29.2%
Top-5 hit rate
These numbers look low, and they should. Phish are deliberately unpredictable — they rotate songs on purpose and enjoy wrong-footing exactly this kind of model, and 100 would mean calling an entire setlist. Read Skill, not the raw score: it measures how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs the model actually captured. Beating that baseline at all is the achievement.
| Date | Venue | Score | Skill | F1 | Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Orion Amphitheater, Huntsville | 18.39/100 | 4.5% | 32.4% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-10-11 | Orion Amphitheater, Huntsville | 29.35/100 | -1.6% | 34.3% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-10-07 | Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront, Richmond | 23.49/100 | -1.3% | 30.3% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-10-06 | Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront, Richmond | 41.07/100 | 13.1% | 48.5% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-10-04 | Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City | 15.13/100 | -18.6% | 13.3% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-10-02 | Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City | 5.36/100 | 0.9% | 12.5% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-09-04 | Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City | 11.46/100 | -6.2% | 18.2% | 3.4.1 / 3.4.1 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-22 | Madison Square Garden, New York | 14.92/100 | 11.2% | 27.3% | 3.2.0 / 3.2.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-21 | Empower Federal Credit Union Amphitheater at Lakeview, Syracuse | 13.59/100 | -2.5% | 17.6% | 3.2.0 / 3.2.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-19 | Merriweather Post Pavilion, Columbia | 20.24/100 | -1.2% | 30.3% | 3.1.0 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-18 | Merriweather Post Pavilion, Columbia | 4.7/100 | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.0.0 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-17 | Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek, Raleigh | 16.53/100 | -2.5% | 23.5% | pre-1.1 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
| 2026-07-15 | ENMARKET ARENA, Savannah | 5.18/100 | -14.4% | 6.1% | pre-1.1 / 3.1.0 | vs. actual → |
Scores shown here are ones already computed and cached. Scoring a night rebuilds a full baseline prediction to measure Skill against, so this page never computes them on the fly — “score it” does one date on request.