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Setlist prediction — 2026-10-06

Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront · Richmond · 2026 Fall Tour · based on 2008 prior shows · 45 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:12] · Free [8:48] · Reba [12:39] ★24% · Tube [8:16] ★26% · Wolfman's Brother [12:46] ★32% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44] · Hey Stranger [9:00] ★24% · Run Like an Antelope [10:29]

Set 2: Sample in a Jar [5:06] ★25% · Kill Devil Falls [14:20] ★64% · Ruby Waves [16:16] ★48% · Piper [11:20] ★41% · Light [13:17] ★25% · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:41] · Possum [8:48]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [7:58] · First Tube [7:10]

Actual — Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront

Set 1: Buried Alive [2:47] > Free [11:36], Run Like an Antelope [11:49], Wolfman's Brother [15:02], Steam [10:14], Axilla (Part II) [11:15] > Divided Sky [12:51], 46 Days [8:52]

Set 2: Life Saving Gun [41:12], Light [19:19] > Possum [8:28] > Also Sprach Zarathustra [4:49] > Suzy Greenberg [5:55], More [5:26]

Encore: Joy [5:36], First Tube [7:13]

Score vs. what they actually played

★ 4 of 5 top picks played · happens on 13.3% of nights
★ Called the opener exactly — Buried Alive · happens on 11.7% of nights
★ Called the encore exactly — First Tube · happens on 36.7% of nights

Each of these is rare on its own — the percentage is measured over the last 60 shows, so it says how unusual the call was rather than just congratulating you.

98.3%
Better than this share of nights
41.07/100
Raw score · median 19.3
13.1%
Skill vs. baseline
32.16
Baseline score
3.18 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it captured 13.1% of that headroom. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.18 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

44.22
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
44.22
set match
Right song in the right set
22.88
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 47.1%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 50.0%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 48.5%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 44.3%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 44.2%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 80.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

17 songs predicted, 16 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 1 of 14 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played13
Longest correct run 2 songs

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 188
Set 276
Encore22
Total17 16

Biggest win

Buried Alive

The rarest song it called correctly — 4.031 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Joy

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 5.043 bits (rare).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple22 100.0%
common105 50.0%
uncommon31 33.3%
rare10 0.0%
bustout00 —

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Joy 5.043 bits rare miss — 0.0
Buried Alive 4.031 bits uncommon hit yes 1.0
Steam 3.826 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Suzy Greenberg 3.771 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Divided Sky 3.469 bits common miss — 0.0
More 3.231 bits common miss — 0.0
Axilla (Part II) 3.172 bits common miss — 0.0
Life Saving Gun 3.054 bits common miss — 0.0
46 Days 2.819 bits common miss — 0.0
Light 2.738 bits common hit yes 0.75
Also Sprach Zarathustra 2.72 bits common hit yes 0.781
First Tube 2.711 bits common hit yes 1.0
Wolfman's Brother 2.676 bits common hit yes 0.808
Run Like an Antelope 2.655 bits common hit yes 0.75
Free 2.496 bits staple hit yes 0.85
Possum 2.478 bits staple hit yes 0.75

Predicted but not played

Hey Stranger · 3.684 bits Sample in a Jar · 3.516 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 3.243 bits Piper · 3.22 bits Reba · 3.191 bits A Life Beyond The Dream · 3.026 bits Kill Devil Falls · 2.893 bits Ruby Waves · 2.853 bits Tube · 2.666 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.4.1 · scored by v3.4.1 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Possumin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 4 (usual ~4)
  2. Also Sprach Zarathustrain heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 11 (usual ~4)
  3. Run Like an Antelopein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 5 (usual ~4)
  4. Bouncing Around the Roomdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 12 (usual ~7)
  5. Freein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 4 (usual ~4)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:12] · Free [8:48] · Reba [12:39] · Tube [8:16] · Wolfman's Brother [12:46] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44] · Hey Stranger [9:00] · Run Like an Antelope [10:29]

Set 2: Sample in a Jar [5:06] · Kill Devil Falls [14:20] · Ruby Waves [16:16] · Piper [11:20] · Light [13:17] · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:41] · Possum [8:48]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [7:58] · First Tube [7:10]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Buried Alive Set 1 3:12 2:44 – 3:58 3.4%
Free Set 1 8:48 8:03 – 10:43 3.6%
Reba Set 1 12:39 11:32 – 13:44 23.7%
Tube Set 1 8:16 6:09 – 11:51 25.9%
Wolfman's Brother Set 1 12:46 9:19 – 15:24 31.7%
Bouncing Around the Room Set 1 3:44 3:26 – 7:13 2.4%
Hey Stranger Set 1 9:00 6:56 – 10:29 24.0%
Run Like an Antelope Set 1 10:29 9:52 – 13:18 9.3%
Sample in a Jar Set 2 5:06 3:47 – 14:05 25.4%
Kill Devil Falls Set 2 14:20 10:49 – 18:33 64.1%
Ruby Waves Set 2 16:16 11:44 – 29:25 47.6%
Piper Set 2 11:20 7:13 – 16:15 41.2%
Light Set 2 13:17 8:45 – 18:30 25.0%
Also Sprach Zarathustra Set 2 7:41 5:57 – 11:43 14.3%
Possum Set 2 8:48 7:25 – 10:18 14.0%
A Life Beyond The Dream Encore 7:58 7:10 – 8:24 0.9%
First Tube Encore 7:10 6:30 – 8:04 0.8%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Brother · gap 235 Poor Heart · gap 87 My Sweet One · gap 83 The Curtain · gap 197 Uncle Pen · gap 350

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →