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Setlist prediction — 2026-10-04

Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall · Atlantic City · Summer Tour 2026 · based on 2005 prior shows · 0 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: David Bowie [10:44] ★19% · The Moma Dance [8:38] ★19% · Runaway Jim [7:38] ★24% · Cities [16:17] ★49% · Leaves [10:29] · Reba [12:39] ★24% · Hey Stranger [9:00] ★24% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:48]

Set 2: My Friend, My Friend [11:37] ★52% · Tweezer [11:22] ★56% · Down with Disease [15:48] ★40% · Pillow Jets [9:37] ★43% · Light [14:43] ★25% · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:25] · More [5:11]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:24] · Tweezer Reprise [3:21]

Actual — Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall

Set 1: David Bowie [13:31], The Moma Dance [20:16], Sigma Oasis [14:30], Blaze On [12:51], Halley's Comet [11:54], Wilson [4:14], The Squirming Coil [8:27]

Set 2: Split Open and Melt [14:22], No Men In No Man's Land [17:16], Simple [30:43], Lonely Trip [6:31], You Enjoy Myself [25:15]

Encore: Carini [13:05]

Score vs. what they actually played

★ Called the opener exactly — David Bowie · happens on 11.7% of nights

Each of these is rare on its own — the percentage is measured over the last 60 shows, so it says how unusual the call was rather than just congratulating you.

40.0%

Better than this share of nights

15.13/100

Raw score · median 19.3

-18.6%

Skill vs. baseline

28.41

Baseline score

2.99 bits

Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -18.6%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (2.99 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

14.8

selection

Right songs, ignoring where they landed

14.8

set match

Right song in the right set

14.33

proximity

Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

Metric	Value	What it means
precision	11.8%	Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall	15.4%	Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1	13.3%	Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted)	11.6%	Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted)	14.8%	Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate	20.0%	Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

17 songs predicted, 13 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right	1 of 14 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played	10
Longest correct run	2 songs

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

Set	Predicted	Actual
Set 1	8	7
Set 2	7	5
Encore	2	1
Total	17	13

Biggest win

David Bowie

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.132 bits (common). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

The Squirming Coil

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 3.609 bits (uncommon).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

Tier	Played	Called	Hit rate
staple	2	0	0.0%
common	9	2	22.2%
uncommon	2	0	0.0%
rare	0	0	—
bustout	0	0	—

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

Song	Rarity	Tier	Called?	Right set?	Credit
The Squirming Coil	3.609 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Lonely Trip	3.582 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Halley's Comet	3.398 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Wilson	3.382 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
David Bowie	3.132 bits	common	hit	yes	1.0
Simple	3.063 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Split Open and Melt	3.02 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
You Enjoy Myself	2.925 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
No Men In No Man's Land	2.658 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
The Moma Dance	2.62 bits	common	hit	yes	0.843
Sigma Oasis	2.577 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Blaze On	2.468 bits	staple	miss	—	0.0
Carini	2.434 bits	staple	miss	—	0.0

Predicted but not played

Leaves · 4.148 bits Cities · 3.84 bits Hey Stranger · 3.64 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 3.198 bits More · 3.187 bits Pillow Jets · 3.152 bits Runaway Jim · 3.145 bits Reba · 3.081 bits My Friend, My Friend · 2.732 bits Light · 2.694 bits Also Sprach Zarathustra · 2.676 bits Slave to the Traffic Light · 2.506 bits Down with Disease · 2.228 bits Tweezer Reprise · 2.157 bits Tweezer · 1.534 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.4.1 · scored by v3.4.1 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

Tweezer + Tweezer Reprisein heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 1 (usual ~5)
Also Sprach Zarathustrain heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~4)
Runaway Jimdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 9 (usual ~5)
David Bowiein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~6)
Rebain heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~7)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: David Bowie [10:44] · The Moma Dance [8:38] · Runaway Jim [7:38] · Cities [16:17] · Leaves [10:29] · Reba [12:39] · Hey Stranger [9:00] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:48]

Set 2: My Friend, My Friend [11:37] · Tweezer [11:22] · Down with Disease [15:48] · Pillow Jets [9:37] · Light [14:43] · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:25] · More [5:11]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:24] · Tweezer Reprise [3:21]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

Song	Set	Likely length	Range (q10–q90)	P(jam chart)
David Bowie	Set 1	10:44	0:49 – 13:11	18.7%
The Moma Dance	Set 1	8:38	7:07 – 11:41	19.4%
Runaway Jim	Set 1	7:38	6:56 – 12:18	24.1%
Cities	Set 1	16:17	6:12 – 19:05	48.7%
Leaves	Set 1	10:29	7:26 – 16:41	10.2%
Reba	Set 1	12:39	11:40 – 13:44	23.7%
Hey Stranger	Set 1	9:00	7:09 – 10:26	24.0%
Bouncing Around the Room	Set 1	3:48	3:38 – 14:40	2.4%
My Friend, My Friend	Set 2	11:37	7:26 – 17:12	51.7%
Tweezer	Set 2	11:22	2:27 – 30:31	55.9%
Down with Disease	Set 2	15:48	1:28 – 34:14	40.5%
Pillow Jets	Set 2	9:37	7:07 – 13:25	43.5%
Light	Set 2	14:43	9:05 – 18:04	25.0%
Also Sprach Zarathustra	Set 2	7:25	5:58 – 11:44	14.3%
More	Set 2	5:11	3:28 – 6:25	7.7%
Slave to the Traffic Light	Encore	9:24	8:34 – 10:37	6.0%
Tweezer Reprise	Encore	3:21	2:49 – 5:36	3.3%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Cracklin' Rosie · gap 147 Brother · gap 232 Poor Heart · gap 84 My Sweet One · gap 80 Uncle Pen · gap 347

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →