Setlist prediction — 2026-10-03
· Fall Tour 2026 · based on 2006 prior shows · 15 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: Possum [8:49] · Bathtub Gin [15:29] ★49% · Back on the Train [8:17] · 555 [6:46] ★17% · Divided Sky [14:14] · Tube [8:16] ★26% · Mountains in the Mist [7:04] · Reba [12:40] ★24% · Harry Hood [13:22]
Set 2: Sand [14:42] ★51% · Twist [9:48] ★31% · No Men In No Man's Land [11:06] ★27% · Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 [9:15] ★23% · Piper [11:20] ★41% · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:41] · Character Zero [6:27] ★17%
Encore: First Tube [7:10] · Tweezer Reprise [3:20]
Actual — Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
Set 1: Sand [12:15], Everything's Right [14:53], Back on the Train [6:07], Stash [11:36], 555 [9:12], Mountains in the Mist [7:14], Bathtub Gin [12:29]
Set 2: Chalk Dust Torture [20:00], What's Going Through Your Mind [25:31], Mike's Song [9:50] > Waste [5:35] > Weekapaug Groove [8:12], Monsters [8:04], Harry Hood [15:51]
Encore: Character Zero [5:17] > Sleeping Monkey [4:36] > Tweezer Reprise [4:32]
Top 5 most likely songs
- Harry Hoodin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 3 (usual ~3)
- Twistdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 20 (usual ~5)
- Also Sprach Zarathustrain heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~4)
- Possumin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 2 (usual ~4)
- Bathtub Ginin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~4)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: Possum [8:49] · Bathtub Gin [15:29] · Back on the Train [8:17] · 555 [6:46] · Divided Sky [14:14] · Tube [8:16] · Mountains in the Mist [7:04] · Reba [12:40] · Harry Hood [13:22]
Set 2: Sand [14:42] · Twist [9:48] · No Men In No Man's Land [11:06] · Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 [9:15] · Piper [11:20] · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:41] · Character Zero [6:27]
Encore: First Tube [7:10] · Tweezer Reprise [3:20]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possum | Set 1 | 8:49 | 8:15 – 10:24 |
4.2%
|
| Bathtub Gin | Set 1 | 15:29 | 11:42 – 20:40 |
49.4%
|
| Back on the Train | Set 1 | 8:17 | 6:56 – 9:58 |
11.1%
|
| 555 | Set 1 | 6:46 | 5:30 – 10:10 |
17.2%
|
| Divided Sky | Set 1 | 14:14 | 12:49 – 15:58 |
3.5%
|
| Tube | Set 1 | 8:16 | 6:09 – 11:51 |
25.9%
|
| Mountains in the Mist | Set 1 | 7:04 | 6:24 – 8:19 |
4.2%
|
| Reba | Set 1 | 12:40 | 11:33 – 13:44 |
23.7%
|
| Harry Hood | Set 1 | 13:22 | 11:51 – 13:53 |
6.8%
|
| Sand | Set 2 | 14:42 | 9:07 – 18:57 |
50.8%
|
| Twist | Set 2 | 9:48 | 7:46 – 14:30 |
31.4%
|
| No Men In No Man's Land | Set 2 | 11:06 | 6:16 – 15:41 |
27.3%
|
| Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 | Set 2 | 9:15 | 6:34 – 15:03 |
23.4%
|
| Piper | Set 2 | 11:20 | 7:13 – 16:15 |
41.2%
|
| Also Sprach Zarathustra | Set 2 | 7:41 | 5:57 – 11:43 |
14.3%
|
| Character Zero | Set 2 | 6:27 | 5:43 – 7:26 |
16.7%
|
| First Tube | Encore | 7:10 | 6:30 – 8:03 |
0.8%
|
| Tweezer Reprise | Encore | 3:20 | 2:56 – 4:20 |
3.3%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →