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Setlist prediction — 2026-10-02

Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall · Atlantic City · Summer Tour 2026 · based on 2005 prior shows · 0 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · Bathtub Gin [15:53] ★49% · Runaway Jim [7:38] ★24% · Cities [16:17] ★49% · Divided Sky [13:47] · Tube [8:21] ★26% · Reba [12:39] ★24% · Split Open and Melt [13:14] ★37%

Set 2: Sand [14:50] ★51% · Slave to the Traffic Light [9:27] · No Men In No Man's Land [10:36] ★27% · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:25] · Tweezer [11:22] ★56% · Piper [12:20] ★41% · Everything's Right [13:02] ★23%

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:14] · Tweezer Reprise [3:21]

Actual — Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall

Set 1: Fuego [13:29], A Wave of Hope [17:21], Slave to the Traffic Light [11:10], Pillow Jets [11:51] -> It's Ice [7:32] > Ghost [18:04]

Set 2: Oblivion [15:54] > Down with Disease [24:34] > Tweezer [20:01] > Mercury [11:06] > Death Don't Hurt Very Long [6:45] > Fluffhead [16:41]

Encore: Alumni Blues > Letter to Jimmy Page > Alumni Blues, Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:13]

Score vs. what they actually played

6.7%
Better than this share of nights
5.36/100
Raw score · median 19.3
0.9%
Skill vs. baseline
4.46
Baseline score
3.71 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it captured 0.9% of that headroom. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.71 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

7.59
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
2.34
set match
Right song in the right set
0.51
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 11.8%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 13.3%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 12.5%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 8.4%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 7.6%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 40.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

17 songs predicted, 15 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 14 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played13
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 186
Set 276
Encore24
Total17 16

Biggest win

Slave to the Traffic Light

The rarest song it called correctly — 2.922 bits (common).

Biggest miss

Letter to Jimmy Page

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 7.804 bits (bustout).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple51 20.0%
common41 25.0%
uncommon30 0.0%
rare00 —
bustout30 0.0%

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Letter to Jimmy Page 7.804 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Death Don't Hurt Very Long 7.269 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Alumni Blues 7.066 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Mercury 3.847 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Pillow Jets 3.825 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
It's Ice 3.575 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Fluffhead 3.156 bits common miss — 0.0
Slave to the Traffic Light 2.922 bits common hit no 0.6
Oblivion 2.796 bits common miss — 0.0
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. 2.697 bits common miss — 0.0
A Wave of Hope 2.46 bits staple miss — 0.0
Fuego 2.421 bits staple miss — 0.0
Down with Disease 2.369 bits staple miss — 0.0
Ghost 2.148 bits staple miss — 0.0
Tweezer 1.305 bits staple hit yes 0.772

Predicted but not played

Cars Trucks Buses · 6.125 bits Cities · 3.925 bits Piper · 3.38 bits Divided Sky · 3.298 bits Reba · 3.106 bits A Life Beyond The Dream · 3.029 bits Runaway Jim · 2.978 bits Bathtub Gin · 2.87 bits Split Open and Melt · 2.844 bits Also Sprach Zarathustra · 2.618 bits Tube · 2.482 bits No Men In No Man's Land · 2.475 bits Everything's Right · 2.359 bits Tweezer Reprise · 2.337 bits Sand · 2.163 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.4.1 · scored by v3.4.1 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Tweezer + Tweezer Reprisein heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 1 (usual ~5)
  2. Also Sprach Zarathustrain heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~4)
  3. Slave to the Traffic Lightdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 8 (usual ~4)
  4. Bathtub Ginin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~5)
  5. Runaway Jimdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 9 (usual ~5)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · Bathtub Gin [15:53] · Runaway Jim [7:38] · Cities [16:17] · Divided Sky [13:47] · Tube [8:21] · Reba [12:39] · Split Open and Melt [13:14]

Set 2: Sand [14:50] · Slave to the Traffic Light [9:27] · No Men In No Man's Land [10:36] · Also Sprach Zarathustra [7:25] · Tweezer [11:22] · Piper [12:20] · Everything's Right [13:02]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:14] · Tweezer Reprise [3:21]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Cars Trucks Buses Set 1 5:37 5:29 – 6:09 5.4%
Bathtub Gin Set 1 15:53 11:59 – 20:48 49.4%
Runaway Jim Set 1 7:38 6:56 – 12:18 24.1%
Cities Set 1 16:17 6:12 – 19:05 48.7%
Divided Sky Set 1 13:47 12:12 – 15:41 3.5%
Tube Set 1 8:21 6:16 – 11:24 25.9%
Reba Set 1 12:39 11:40 – 13:44 23.7%
Split Open and Melt Set 1 13:14 12:34 – 15:46 37.1%
Sand Set 2 14:50 9:10 – 18:39 50.8%
Slave to the Traffic Light Set 2 9:27 8:47 – 11:20 10.3%
No Men In No Man's Land Set 2 10:36 6:03 – 14:41 27.3%
Also Sprach Zarathustra Set 2 7:25 5:58 – 11:44 14.3%
Tweezer Set 2 11:22 2:27 – 30:31 55.9%
Piper Set 2 12:20 7:13 – 16:14 41.2%
Everything's Right Set 2 13:02 9:52 – 16:39 23.1%
A Life Beyond The Dream Encore 8:14 7:15 – 8:40 0.9%
Tweezer Reprise Encore 3:21 2:49 – 5:36 3.3%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Cracklin' Rosie · gap 147 Brother · gap 232 Poor Heart · gap 84 My Sweet One · gap 80 Uncle Pen · gap 347

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →