Setlist prediction — 2026-07-15

ENMARKET ARENA · Savannah · based on 1986 prior shows · 46 songs excluded by rotation rules · actual setlist known

Score vs. what they actually played

5.47/100

Score

0.0%

Skill vs. baseline

5.47

Baseline score

4.03 bits

Difficulty

A low raw score is the expected result, not a bug. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable — nobody calls a whole setlist, and 100 would mean exactly that. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it captured 0.0% of that headroom. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (4.03 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

5.72

selection

Right songs, ignoring where they landed

5.72

set match

Right song in the right set

4.04

proximity

Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

Metric	Value	What it means
precision	5.6%	Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall	6.7%	Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1	6.1%	Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted)	6.9%	Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted)	5.7%	Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate	20.0%	Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 15 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right	0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played	12
Longest correct run	1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

Set	Predicted	Actual
Set 1	9	8
Set 2	7	6
Encore	2	1
Total	18	15

Biggest win

Crosseyed and Painless

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.463 bits (common). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Dinner and a Movie

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 6.976 bits (rare).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

Tier	Played	Called	Hit rate
staple	1	0	0.0%
common	5	1	20.0%
uncommon	7	0	0.0%
rare	2	0	0.0%
bustout	0	0	—

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

Song	Rarity	Tier	Called?	Right set?	Credit
Dinner and a Movie	6.976 bits	rare	miss	—	0.0
Sightless Escape	6.034 bits	rare	miss	—	0.0
Vultures	4.377 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Rock and Roll	4.216 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Farmhouse	4.174 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Pebbles and Marbles	4.107 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing	4.085 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Scents and Subtle Sounds	3.826 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
The Wedge	3.704 bits	uncommon	miss	—	0.0
Crosseyed and Painless	3.463 bits	common	hit	yes	0.956
Halley's Comet	3.379 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Divided Sky	3.317 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Taste	3.299 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Drift While You're Sleeping	3.292 bits	common	miss	—	0.0
Ghost	2.248 bits	staple	miss	—	0.0

Predicted but not played

Limb By Limb · 3.9 bits Buried Alive · 3.657 bits Hey Stranger · 3.09 bits Roggae · 3.02 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 2.879 bits Backwards Down the Number Line · 2.774 bits Ruby Waves · 2.631 bits Tube · 2.577 bits Twist · 2.557 bits No Men In No Man's Land · 2.556 bits Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. · 2.554 bits Back on the Train · 2.53 bits Slave to the Traffic Light · 2.529 bits Character Zero · 2.49 bits The Moma Dance · 2.477 bits Fuego · 2.46 bits Wolfman's Brother · 2.393 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:23] · The Moma Dance [8:43] ★21% · Back on the Train [8:17] · Roggae [8:52] ★23% · Tube [8:36] ★21% · Wolfman's Brother [12:52] ★31% · Limb By Limb [8:28] · Hey Stranger [9:02] ★21% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44]

Set 2: No Men In No Man's Land [10:54] ★29% · Ruby Waves [16:19] ★53% · Fuego [16:54] ★50% · Crosseyed and Painless [13:27] ★45% · Twist [10:10] ★26% · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:42] · Character Zero [6:44]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:46] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:51]

Actual — ENMARKET ARENA

Set 1: Dinner and a Movie, Vultures, Taste, The Wedge > Pebbles and Marbles, Divided Sky, Halley's Comet, Drift While You're Sleeping

Set 2: Sightless Escape, A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing > Crosseyed and Painless > Farmhouse, Scents and Subtle Sounds > Ghost

Encore: Rock and Roll

Top 5 most likely songs

Chalk Dust Torturein heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 5 (usual ~2)
Harry Hoodin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 4 (usual ~3)
Ghostin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 5 (usual ~3)
Possumin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 4 (usual ~2)
Blaze Onin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 3 (usual ~3)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:23] · The Moma Dance [8:43] · Back on the Train [8:17] · Roggae [8:52] · Tube [8:36] · Wolfman's Brother [12:52] · Limb By Limb [8:28] · Hey Stranger [9:02] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44]

Set 2: No Men In No Man's Land [10:54] · Ruby Waves [16:19] · Fuego [16:54] · Crosseyed and Painless [13:27] · Twist [10:10] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:42] · Character Zero [6:44]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:46] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:51]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

Song	Set	Likely length	Range (q10–q90)	P(jam chart)
Buried Alive	Set 1	3:23	2:40 – 4:02	3.1%
The Moma Dance	Set 1	8:43	7:39 – 12:12	20.9%
Back on the Train	Set 1	8:17	6:49 – 8:59	11.9%
Roggae	Set 1	8:52	8:03 – 10:50	22.9%
Tube	Set 1	8:36	6:14 – 11:54	20.6%
Wolfman's Brother	Set 1	12:52	10:04 – 15:03	31.2%
Limb By Limb	Set 1	8:28	7:12 – 10:21	12.2%
Hey Stranger	Set 1	9:02	6:46 – 10:27	21.4%
Bouncing Around the Room	Set 1	3:44	3:37 – 7:29	1.5%
No Men In No Man's Land	Set 2	10:54	6:43 – 15:07	28.9%
Ruby Waves	Set 2	16:19	13:40 – 29:43	53.0%
Fuego	Set 2	16:54	8:05 – 30:17	50.0%
Crosseyed and Painless	Set 2	13:27	8:12 – 19:05	44.9%
Twist	Set 2	10:10	7:52 – 14:25	25.6%
Backwards Down the Number Line	Set 2	7:42	6:57 – 9:26	13.1%
Character Zero	Set 2	6:44	5:41 – 7:25	14.7%
Slave to the Traffic Light	Encore	9:46	8:33 – 10:36	7.7%
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.	Encore	5:51	5:31 – 6:34	1.1%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Jam · gap 450 Take the 'A' Train · gap 1324 La Grange · gap 528 Love You · gap 379 Terrapin · gap 250

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 36.5%, setlist recall 30.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →