Setlist prediction — 2026-10-11
Orion Amphitheater · Huntsville · 2026 Fall Tour · based on 2011 prior shows · 49 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:07] ★29% · Cavern [4:44] · Theme from the Bottom [10:25] ★24% · Cities [14:53] ★49% · My Friend, My Friend [10:32] ★27% · Taste [7:30] · About to Run [6:43] · Walls of the Cave [11:28] ★17%
Set 2: Sample in a Jar [5:06] ★25% · A Wave of Hope [16:56] ★44% · Fuego [16:21] ★52% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:48] · Piper [11:05] ★41% · A Life Beyond The Dream [7:34] · Character Zero [6:25] ★17%
Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:41] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:04]
Actual — ORION AMPHITHEATER
Set 1: Rift [6:11] > Free [20:44], Maze [9:08], Theme from the Bottom [13:51], Sand [12:56], Ether Edge [16:34] > Drift While You're Sleeping [12:34]
Set 2: Everything's Right [16:59] > Fuego [27:33], Twenty Years Later [14:30] > Possum [9:25], What's the Use? [7:27] > Piper [15:48] -> A Life Beyond The Dream [8:18], Rock and Roll [6:40]
Encore: About to Run [8:32], Slave to the Traffic Light [9:41]
Score vs. what they actually played
Each of these is rare on its own — the percentage is measured over the last 60 shows, so it says how unusual the call was rather than just congratulating you.
The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -1.6%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.23 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.
Sub-scores
Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.
Precision & recall
| Metric | Value | What it means | |
|---|---|---|---|
| precision | 33.3% | Of what it predicted, how much got played | |
| recall | 35.3% | Of what got played, how much it predicted | |
| f1 | 34.3% | Harmonic mean of the two | |
| precision (rarity-weighted) | 31.4% | Precision, weighted by how rare each song is | |
| recall (rarity-weighted) | 33.8% | Recall, weighted by how rare each song is | |
| top5 hit rate | 40.0% | Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played |
18 songs predicted, 17 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.
Sequence
| Adjacent pairs called right | 1 of 15 predicted |
| Adjacent pairs actually played | 14 |
| Longest correct run | 2 songs |
Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.
Structure
| Set | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | 9 | 7 |
| Set 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Encore | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 18 | 17 |
Biggest win
The rarest song it called correctly — 3.933 bits (uncommon).
Biggest miss
The rarest song it didn't see coming — 4.735 bits (uncommon).
By rarity
How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.
| Tier | Played | Called | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| staple | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
|
| common | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
|
| uncommon | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
|
| rare | 0 | 0 | — | |
| bustout | 0 | 0 | — |
Song by song
Everything they played, rarest first.
| Song | Rarity | Tier | Called? | Right set? | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twenty Years Later | 4.735 bits | uncommon | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Rock and Roll | 4.277 bits | uncommon | miss | — | 0.0 |
| About to Run | 3.933 bits | uncommon | hit | no | 0.6 |
| Ether Edge | 3.919 bits | uncommon | miss | — | 0.0 |
| What's the Use? | 3.734 bits | uncommon | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Drift While You're Sleeping | 3.635 bits | uncommon | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Rift | 3.389 bits | common | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Piper | 3.268 bits | common | hit | yes | 0.836 |
| Maze | 3.261 bits | common | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Theme from the Bottom | 3.029 bits | common | hit | yes | 0.813 |
| A Life Beyond The Dream | 3.004 bits | common | hit | yes | 0.843 |
| Slave to the Traffic Light | 2.769 bits | common | hit | yes | 0.9 |
| Fuego | 2.521 bits | common | hit | yes | 0.794 |
| Everything's Right | 2.394 bits | staple | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Possum | 2.385 bits | staple | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Free | 2.364 bits | staple | miss | — | 0.0 |
| Sand | 2.224 bits | staple | miss | — | 0.0 |
Predicted but not played
Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.
Predicted by model v3.4.1 · scored by v3.4.1 rules.
Top 5 most likely songs
- Piperdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 21 (usual ~6)
- Bouncing Around the Roomdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 15 (usual ~7)
- A Life Beyond The Dreamdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 10 (usual ~5)
- My Friend, My Friendin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~5)
- Caverndue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 13 (usual ~8)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:07] · Cavern [4:44] · Theme from the Bottom [10:25] · Cities [14:53] · My Friend, My Friend [10:32] · Taste [7:30] · About to Run [6:43] · Walls of the Cave [11:28]
Set 2: Sample in a Jar [5:06] · A Wave of Hope [16:56] · Fuego [16:21] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:48] · Piper [11:05] · A Life Beyond The Dream [7:34] · Character Zero [6:25]
Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:41] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:04]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cars Trucks Buses | Set 1 | 5:37 | 5:29 – 6:09 |
5.4%
|
| AC/DC Bag | Set 1 | 9:07 | 5:44 – 11:57 |
29.4%
|
| Cavern | Set 1 | 4:44 | 4:20 – 5:11 |
2.9%
|
| Theme from the Bottom | Set 1 | 10:25 | 8:24 – 13:35 |
23.8%
|
| Cities | Set 1 | 14:53 | 4:41 – 19:02 |
48.7%
|
| My Friend, My Friend | Set 1 | 10:32 | 5:47 – 18:53 |
27.1%
|
| Taste | Set 1 | 7:30 | 7:12 – 10:24 |
4.1%
|
| About to Run | Set 1 | 6:43 | 6:01 – 6:53 |
4.0%
|
| Walls of the Cave | Set 1 | 11:28 | 10:45 – 12:32 |
16.6%
|
| Sample in a Jar | Set 2 | 5:06 | 3:47 – 14:05 |
25.4%
|
| A Wave of Hope | Set 2 | 16:56 | 9:54 – 23:32 |
43.8%
|
| Fuego | Set 2 | 16:21 | 10:12 – 25:32 |
51.7%
|
| Bouncing Around the Room | Set 2 | 3:48 | 3:25 – 23:16 |
13.6%
|
| Piper | Set 2 | 11:05 | 7:12 – 16:15 |
41.2%
|
| A Life Beyond The Dream | Set 2 | 7:34 | 7:15 – 9:32 |
7.6%
|
| Character Zero | Set 2 | 6:25 | 5:41 – 7:23 |
16.7%
|
| Slave to the Traffic Light | Encore | 9:41 | 8:31 – 10:42 |
6.0%
|
| Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. | Encore | 6:04 | 5:22 – 6:26 |
0.9%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →