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← 2026-10-11 · ORION AMPHITHEATER

Setlist prediction — 2026-10-12

Orion Amphitheater · Huntsville · 2026 Fall Tour · based on 2012 prior shows · 50 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:07] ★29% · Back on the Train [8:10] · Cities [14:53] ★49% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44] · Taste [7:30] · Evolve [6:44] · Character Zero [6:57] ★16%

Set 2: Mike's Song [9:38] ★22% · I Am Hydrogen [3:00] · Weekapaug Groove [7:48] ★24% · My Friend, My Friend [11:46] ★52% · Gotta Jibboo [9:47] ★16% · Golgi Apparatus [5:01] · A Wave of Hope [16:33] ★44%

Encore: Bug [6:26] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:04]

Actual — ORION AMPHITHEATER

Set 1: Mike's Song [9:50] > Shade [4:15] > Weekapaug Groove [6:16], AC/DC Bag [8:04] > Wolfman's Brother [19:41], Birds of a Feather [7:59], My Friend, My Friend [18:57]

Set 2: No Men In No Man's Land [8:00] > Prince Caspian [11:03] -> Blaze On [18:41], Down with Disease [11:13] -> Big Black Furry Creature from Mars [3:57], Scents and Subtle Sounds [13:39] > Good Times Bad Times [5:57] > Taste [8:07], The Wedge [7:45], Character Zero [7:14]

Encore: Wading in the Velvet Sea [5:34] > Backwards Down the Number Line [6:06] > Run Like an Antelope [10:51]

Score vs. what they actually played

46.7%
Better than this share of nights
18.39/100
Raw score · median 19.3
4.5%
Skill vs. baseline
14.53
Baseline score
3.34 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it captured 4.5% of that headroom. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.34 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

26.1
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
5.25
set match
Right song in the right set
0
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 35.3%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 30.0%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 32.4%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 30.1%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 26.1%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 60.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

17 songs predicted, 20 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 14 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played17
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 187
Set 2710
Encore23
Total17 20

Biggest win

AC/DC Bag

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.509 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Big Black Furry Creature from Mars

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 5.646 bits (rare).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple31 33.3%
common94 44.4%
uncommon61 16.7%
rare20 0.0%
bustout00 —

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Big Black Furry Creature from Mars 5.646 bits rare miss — 0.0
Good Times Bad Times 5.352 bits rare miss — 0.0
Shade 4.272 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Scents and Subtle Sounds 4.228 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Wading in the Velvet Sea 4.007 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Birds of a Feather 3.941 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
The Wedge 3.849 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
AC/DC Bag 3.509 bits uncommon hit yes 0.75
Taste 3.322 bits common hit no 0.6
Prince Caspian 3.067 bits common miss — 0.0
My Friend, My Friend 2.915 bits common hit no 0.6
Mike's Song 2.687 bits common hit no 0.6
Weekapaug Groove 2.675 bits common hit no 0.6
Backwards Down the Number Line 2.653 bits common miss — 0.0
No Men In No Man's Land 2.542 bits common miss — 0.0
Wolfman's Brother 2.519 bits common miss — 0.0
Run Like an Antelope 2.502 bits common miss — 0.0
Blaze On 2.421 bits staple miss — 0.0
Down with Disease 2.41 bits staple miss — 0.0
Character Zero 2.342 bits staple hit no 0.6

Predicted but not played

Cars Trucks Buses · 5.864 bits I Am Hydrogen · 4.29 bits Cities · 4.135 bits Gotta Jibboo · 4.107 bits Bug · 4.006 bits Golgi Apparatus · 3.754 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 3.38 bits Evolve · 3.346 bits Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. · 2.649 bits A Wave of Hope · 2.524 bits Back on the Train · 2.486 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.4.1 · scored by v3.4.1 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. My Friend, My Friendin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~5)
  2. Bouncing Around the Roomdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 16 (usual ~7)
  3. Character Zeroin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 5 (usual ~3)
  4. Golgi Apparatusdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 15 (usual ~9)
  5. AC/DC Bagdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 16 (usual ~8)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:07] · Back on the Train [8:10] · Cities [14:53] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44] · Taste [7:30] · Evolve [6:44] · Character Zero [6:57]

Set 2: Mike's Song [9:38] · I Am Hydrogen [3:00] · Weekapaug Groove [7:48] · My Friend, My Friend [11:46] · Gotta Jibboo [9:47] · Golgi Apparatus [5:01] · A Wave of Hope [16:33]

Encore: Bug [6:26] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:04]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Cars Trucks Buses Set 1 5:37 5:29 – 6:09 5.4%
AC/DC Bag Set 1 9:07 5:44 – 11:57 29.4%
Back on the Train Set 1 8:10 6:37 – 9:49 11.1%
Cities Set 1 14:53 4:41 – 19:02 48.7%
Bouncing Around the Room Set 1 3:44 3:26 – 7:13 2.4%
Taste Set 1 7:30 7:12 – 10:24 4.1%
Evolve Set 1 6:44 5:50 – 9:21 2.5%
Character Zero Set 1 6:57 5:53 – 14:54 15.7%
Mike's Song Set 2 9:38 7:36 – 15:09 21.6%
I Am Hydrogen Set 2 3:00 2:29 – 3:06 10.0%
Weekapaug Groove Set 2 7:48 5:16 – 8:28 24.1%
My Friend, My Friend Set 2 11:46 7:27 – 18:20 51.7%
Gotta Jibboo Set 2 9:47 7:57 – 11:55 16.2%
Golgi Apparatus Set 2 5:01 4:39 – 6:12 7.7%
A Wave of Hope Set 2 16:33 9:48 – 23:17 43.8%
Bug Encore 6:26 5:56 – 7:40 1.5%
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. Encore 6:04 5:22 – 6:26 0.9%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Brother · gap 239 Poor Heart · gap 91 My Sweet One · gap 87 Sanity · gap 127 Uncle Pen · gap 354

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →