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Setlist prediction — 2026-10-07

Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront · Richmond · 2026 Fall Tour · based on 2009 prior shows · 46 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:07] ★29% · Evolve [6:44] · Theme from the Bottom [10:25] ★24% · Tube [8:15] ★26% · Reba [12:39] ★24% · Hey Stranger [9:00] ★24% · Walls of the Cave [11:33] ★17%

Set 2: Sample in a Jar [5:06] ★25% · Twist [9:48] ★31% · Tweezer [14:43] ★56% · Golden Age [11:57] ★37% · What's the Use? [7:15] · Ruby Waves [16:16] ★48% · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:57]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [7:58] · Miss You [6:56]

Actual — Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront

Set 1: Gumbo [15:44], The Curtain With [13:27], Hey Stranger [8:11], Llama [5:01], Roggae [10:19], Tube [8:41] > Timber (Jerry the Mule) [8:59], Most Events Aren't Planned [9:37]

Set 2: Kill Devil Falls [15:32] > Ruby Waves [23:29] > Golden Age [26:01] > Meatstick [6:11] > Backwards Down the Number Line [6:41] > Loving Cup [7:01]

Encore: The Lizards [9:40], Julius [7:44]

Score vs. what they actually played

71.7%
Better than this share of nights
23.49/100
Raw score · median 19.3
-1.3%
Skill vs. baseline
24.49
Baseline score
3.42 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -1.3%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.42 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

27.25
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
27.25
set match
Right song in the right set
8.82
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 29.4%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 31.2%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 30.3%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 25.8%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 27.3%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 20.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

17 songs predicted, 16 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 14 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played13
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 188
Set 276
Encore22
Total17 16

Biggest win

Hey Stranger

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.636 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

The Curtain With

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 4.11 bits (uncommon).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple00 —
common64 66.7%
uncommon101 10.0%
rare00 —
bustout00 —

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
The Curtain With 4.11 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Meatstick 4.041 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Loving Cup 3.902 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Timber (Jerry the Mule) 3.653 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
The Lizards 3.649 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Hey Stranger 3.636 bits uncommon hit yes 0.75
Julius 3.632 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Gumbo 3.575 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Llama 3.574 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Most Events Aren't Planned 3.542 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Roggae 3.322 bits common miss — 0.0
Golden Age 3.029 bits common hit yes 0.821
Kill Devil Falls 2.844 bits common miss — 0.0
Ruby Waves 2.804 bits common hit yes 0.75
Backwards Down the Number Line 2.793 bits common hit yes 0.791
Tube 2.665 bits common hit yes 0.808

Predicted but not played

Miss You · 6.242 bits Cars Trucks Buses · 5.679 bits Walls of the Cave · 3.778 bits What's the Use? · 3.612 bits Sample in a Jar · 3.467 bits AC/DC Bag · 3.322 bits Evolve · 3.16 bits Reba · 3.142 bits Twist · 3.016 bits Theme from the Bottom · 3.002 bits A Life Beyond The Dream · 2.977 bits Tweezer · 1.647 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.4.1 · scored by v3.4.1 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Twistdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 23 (usual ~4)
  2. A Life Beyond The Dreamin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~5)
  3. Tubein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~5)
  4. Evolvedue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 20 (usual ~4)
  5. Rebadue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 13 (usual ~7)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:07] · Evolve [6:44] · Theme from the Bottom [10:25] · Tube [8:15] · Reba [12:39] · Hey Stranger [9:00] · Walls of the Cave [11:33]

Set 2: Sample in a Jar [5:06] · Twist [9:48] · Tweezer [14:43] · Golden Age [11:57] · What's the Use? [7:15] · Ruby Waves [16:16] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:57]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [7:58] · Miss You [6:56]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Cars Trucks Buses Set 1 5:37 5:29 – 6:09 5.4%
AC/DC Bag Set 1 9:07 5:44 – 11:57 29.4%
Evolve Set 1 6:44 5:50 – 9:21 2.5%
Theme from the Bottom Set 1 10:25 8:24 – 13:35 23.8%
Tube Set 1 8:15 6:09 – 11:51 25.9%
Reba Set 1 12:39 11:32 – 13:44 23.7%
Hey Stranger Set 1 9:00 6:56 – 10:29 24.0%
Walls of the Cave Set 1 11:33 10:46 – 12:28 16.6%
Sample in a Jar Set 2 5:06 3:47 – 14:05 25.4%
Twist Set 2 9:48 7:43 – 14:31 31.4%
Tweezer Set 2 14:43 2:25 – 29:41 55.9%
Golden Age Set 2 11:57 6:52 – 18:44 37.1%
What's the Use? Set 2 7:15 6:06 – 8:38 7.6%
Ruby Waves Set 2 16:16 11:44 – 29:25 47.6%
Backwards Down the Number Line Set 2 7:57 6:51 – 9:21 13.2%
A Life Beyond The Dream Encore 7:58 7:10 – 8:24 0.9%
Miss You Encore 6:56 5:47 – 7:50 3.3%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Brother · gap 236 Poor Heart · gap 88 My Sweet One · gap 84 The Curtain · gap 198 Uncle Pen · gap 351

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →