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Setlist prediction — 2026-07-17

Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek · Raleigh · based on 1987 prior shows · 45 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:23] · The Moma Dance [8:43] ★21% · Back on the Train [8:18] · Roggae [8:52] ★29% · Tube [8:36] ★21% · 555 [7:15] ★20% · Reba [12:40] ★15% · Dirt [4:34] · Most Events Aren't Planned [8:42]

Set 2: Chalk Dust Torture [11:32] ★43% · Fuego [16:54] ★50% · No Men In No Man's Land [10:54] ★29% · Mercury [15:46] ★45% · Boogie On Reggae Woman [5:09] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:42] · Character Zero [6:44]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:46] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:54]

Actual — COASTAL CREDIT UNION MUSIC PARK AT WALNUT CREEK

Set 1: Buried Alive [2:44] > Character Zero [16:01], Llama [4:49], Mercury [10:11] > Sample in a Jar [15:05] > Destiny Unbound [7:38], Guyute [9:44], Golgi Apparatus [12:11]

Set 2: Harry Hood [18:09], Fuego [21:44] > The Lizards [18:42] -> A Wave of Hope [10:28]

Encore: Fee [5:32], Meatstick [5:04] > The Mango Song [7:26], Izabella [6:25]

Score vs. what they actually played

★ Called the opener exactly — Buried Alive · happens on 11.7% of nights

Each of these is rare on its own — the percentage is measured over the last 60 shows, so it says how unusual the call was rather than just congratulating you.

41.7%
Better than this share of nights
16.53/100
Raw score · median 19.3
-2.5%
Skill vs. baseline
18.55
Baseline score
3.80 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -2.5%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.80 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

20.1
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
10.13
set match
Right song in the right set
8.13
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 22.2%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 25.0%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 23.5%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 23.0%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 20.1%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 40.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 16 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played13
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 198
Set 274
Encore24
Total18 16

Biggest win

Buried Alive

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.673 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Destiny Unbound

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 5.501 bits (rare).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple21 50.0%
common21 50.0%
uncommon102 20.0%
rare20 0.0%
bustout00 —

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Destiny Unbound 5.501 bits rare miss — 0.0
The Mango Song 5.451 bits rare miss — 0.0
Guyute 4.918 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Izabella 4.796 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Fee 4.534 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Meatstick 3.855 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Llama 3.728 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
The Lizards 3.72 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Buried Alive 3.673 bits uncommon hit yes 1.0
Sample in a Jar 3.671 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Golgi Apparatus 3.6 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Mercury 3.552 bits uncommon hit no 0.6
Character Zero 2.506 bits common hit no 0.6
A Wave of Hope 2.504 bits common miss — 0.0
Fuego 2.476 bits staple hit yes 0.801
Harry Hood 2.246 bits staple miss — 0.0

Predicted but not played

Dirt · 4.183 bits Boogie On Reggae Woman · 3.752 bits 555 · 3.508 bits Most Events Aren't Planned · 3.246 bits Roggae · 3.036 bits Reba · 2.837 bits Backwards Down the Number Line · 2.791 bits Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. · 2.613 bits Tube · 2.594 bits Back on the Train · 2.588 bits No Men In No Man's Land · 2.572 bits Slave to the Traffic Light · 2.545 bits The Moma Dance · 2.493 bits Chalk Dust Torture · 2.171 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model vpre-1.1 · scored by v3.1.0 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Chalk Dust Torturein heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 6 (usual ~2)
  2. Tweezer + Tweezer Reprisein heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 3 (usual ~3)
  3. Harry Hoodin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 5 (usual ~3)
  4. Character Zeroin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 6 (usual ~3)
  5. Cariniin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 3 (usual ~4)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:23] · The Moma Dance [8:43] · Back on the Train [8:18] · Roggae [8:52] · Tube [8:36] · 555 [7:15] · Reba [12:40] · Dirt [4:34] · Most Events Aren't Planned [8:42]

Set 2: Chalk Dust Torture [11:32] · Fuego [16:54] · No Men In No Man's Land [10:54] · Mercury [15:46] · Boogie On Reggae Woman [5:09] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:42] · Character Zero [6:44]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:46] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:54]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Buried Alive Set 1 3:23 2:40 – 4:02 3.1%
The Moma Dance Set 1 8:43 7:39 – 12:12 20.9%
Back on the Train Set 1 8:18 6:49 – 8:59 11.9%
Roggae Set 1 8:52 8:03 – 10:50 29.0%
Tube Set 1 8:36 6:14 – 11:54 20.6%
555 Set 1 7:15 5:15 – 10:41 20.1%
Reba Set 1 12:40 11:32 – 13:45 15.0%
Dirt Set 1 4:34 4:19 – 4:49 5.3%
Most Events Aren't Planned Set 1 8:42 8:01 – 9:09 5.7%
Chalk Dust Torture Set 2 11:32 6:37 – 25:55 43.3%
Fuego Set 2 16:54 8:05 – 30:17 50.0%
No Men In No Man's Land Set 2 10:54 6:43 – 15:07 28.9%
Mercury Set 2 15:46 9:20 – 23:21 44.9%
Boogie On Reggae Woman Set 2 5:09 4:43 – 6:05 14.1%
Backwards Down the Number Line Set 2 7:42 6:57 – 9:26 13.1%
Character Zero Set 2 6:44 5:41 – 7:25 14.7%
Slave to the Traffic Light Encore 9:46 8:33 – 10:36 7.6%
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. Encore 5:54 5:27 – 6:35 1.1%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Jam · gap 451 Take the 'A' Train · gap 1325 La Grange · gap 529 Love You · gap 380 Terrapin · gap 251

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →