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Setlist prediction — 2026-07-18

Merriweather Post Pavilion · Columbia · based on 1988 prior shows · 46 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.0.0 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:43] ★21% · Back on the Train [8:17] · Axilla (Part II) [6:19] ★23% · Funky Bitch [6:45] · No Men In No Man's Land [10:09] · Tube [8:09] ★23% · Reba [12:41] · Chalk Dust Torture [9:38] ★31%

Set 2: Oblivion [15:02] ★31% · Down with Disease [16:11] ★39% · Ruby Waves [16:13] ★52% · Lonely Trip [6:41] · Possum [9:04] · What's the Use? [7:08] · Everything's Right [13:08] ★26%

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [7:54] · First Tube [7:10]

Actual — MERRIWEATHER POST PAVILION

Set 1: What's Going Through Your Mind [13:42], Contact [9:59], You Enjoy Myself [17:17] > Axilla (Part II) [11:47] -> McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters -> Have Mercy [3:15] > McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters > Shade [4:11], Runaway Jim [12:13]

Set 2: Life Saving Gun [24:23] > Gotta Jibboo [12:09] -> Ether Edge [14:04] > Lifeboy [6:24], Boogie On Reggae Woman [8:05] > Free [9:35]

Encore: Monsters [7:28], If I Could [5:43], Run Like an Antelope [9:42]

Score vs. what they actually played

6.7%
Better than this share of nights
4.7/100
Raw score · median 19.3
4.7%
Skill vs. baseline
0
Baseline score
4.16 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it captured 4.7% of that headroom. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (4.16 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

4.97
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
4.97
set match
Right song in the right set
4.97
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 5.6%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 5.9%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 5.7%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 6.5%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 5.0%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 0.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 17 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played15
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 199
Set 276
Encore23
Total18 18

Biggest win

Axilla (Part II)

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.511 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Have Mercy

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 8.702 bits (bustout).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple00 —
common70 0.0%
uncommon61 16.7%
rare30 0.0%
bustout10 0.0%

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Have Mercy 8.702 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Contact 6.996 bits rare miss — 0.0
If I Could 5.539 bits rare miss — 0.0
Lifeboy 5.091 bits rare miss — 0.0
McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters 4.607 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Shade 4.367 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Ether Edge 4.018 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Boogie On Reggae Woman 3.962 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Gotta Jibboo 3.822 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Axilla (Part II) 3.511 bits uncommon hit yes 0.85
Monsters 3.191 bits common miss — 0.0
Runaway Jim 3.142 bits common miss — 0.0
What's Going Through Your Mind 2.883 bits common miss — 0.0
Life Saving Gun 2.853 bits common miss — 0.0
You Enjoy Myself 2.769 bits common miss — 0.0
Run Like an Antelope 2.664 bits common miss — 0.0
Free 2.533 bits common miss — 0.0

Predicted but not played

Cars Trucks Buses · 5.602 bits Funky Bitch · 4.292 bits What's the Use? · 3.798 bits Lonely Trip · 3.584 bits Reba · 2.817 bits Oblivion · 2.737 bits A Life Beyond The Dream · 2.69 bits Ruby Waves · 2.655 bits Tube · 2.607 bits Back on the Train · 2.603 bits No Men In No Man's Land · 2.589 bits Possum · 2.565 bits First Tube · 2.523 bits The Moma Dance · 2.52 bits Down with Disease · 2.506 bits Everything's Right · 2.427 bits Chalk Dust Torture · 2.233 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.0.0 · scored by v3.1.0 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Chalk Dust Torturein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~3)
  2. Possumin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)
  3. The Moma Dancein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)
  4. First Tubein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)
  5. No Men In No Man's Landin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~5)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:43] · Back on the Train [8:17] · Axilla (Part II) [6:19] · Funky Bitch [6:45] · No Men In No Man's Land [10:09] · Tube [8:09] · Reba [12:41] · Chalk Dust Torture [9:38]

Set 2: Oblivion [15:02] · Down with Disease [16:11] · Ruby Waves [16:13] · Lonely Trip [6:41] · Possum [9:04] · What's the Use? [7:08] · Everything's Right [13:08]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [7:54] · First Tube [7:10]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Cars Trucks Buses Set 1 5:37 5:29 – 6:09 5.7%
The Moma Dance Set 1 8:43 7:37 – 12:28 20.8%
Back on the Train Set 1 8:17 6:48 – 9:05 12.0%
Axilla (Part II) Set 1 6:19 5:47 – 17:42 22.9%
Funky Bitch Set 1 6:45 5:58 – 7:59 11.1%
No Men In No Man's Land Set 1 10:09 7:56 – 13:28 12.3%
Tube Set 1 8:09 6:13 – 12:04 22.7%
Reba Set 1 12:41 11:32 – 13:44 11.8%
Chalk Dust Torture Set 1 9:38 3:18 – 16:35 31.3%
Oblivion Set 2 15:02 7:27 – 17:39 31.1%
Down with Disease Set 2 16:11 7:49 – 24:54 38.9%
Ruby Waves Set 2 16:13 11:40 – 29:51 52.0%
Lonely Trip Set 2 6:41 6:11 – 8:00 5.6%
Possum Set 2 9:04 8:01 – 10:16 13.8%
What's the Use? Set 2 7:08 5:53 – 8:38 8.2%
Everything's Right Set 2 13:08 9:02 – 16:55 26.4%
A Life Beyond The Dream Encore 7:54 7:10 – 8:19 0.9%
First Tube Encore 7:10 6:29 – 8:03 0.8%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Jam · gap 452 Take the 'A' Train · gap 1326 La Grange · gap 530 Love You · gap 381 Terrapin · gap 252

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →