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Setlist prediction — 2026-07-19

Merriweather Post Pavilion · Columbia · based on 1989 prior shows · 48 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.1.0 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Blaze On [8:57] ★15% · The Moma Dance [8:43] ★21% · Back on the Train [8:17] · Roggae [8:52] ★23% · Tube [8:01] ★23% · Wolfman's Brother [12:49] ★32% · Limb By Limb [8:17] · Hey Stranger [9:01] ★20% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44]

Set 2: Sigma Oasis [8:50] ★17% · Down with Disease [16:11] ★39% · Ruby Waves [16:13] ★52% · Light [12:53] ★24% · Lonely Trip [6:41] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:43] · Chalk Dust Torture [12:10] ★49%

Encore: Possum [9:52] · Tweezer Reprise [3:21]

Actual — MERRIWEATHER POST PAVILION

Set 1: Undermind [7:06] > Back on the Train [10:39], Ass Handed [17:05], The Moma Dance [7:06] > Fast Enough for You [6:39], NICU [5:01] > Oblivion [18:09] > Possum [9:42]

Set 2: Carini [40:04], No Men In No Man's Land [6:15] > Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 [6:24] > Ruby Waves [14:43] > Backwards Down the Number Line [8:00]

Encore: I Am the Walrus [6:01] > First Tube [7:15]

Score vs. what they actually played

61.7%
Better than this share of nights
20.24/100
Raw score · median 19.3
-1.2%
Skill vs. baseline
21.22
Baseline score
3.64 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -1.2%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.64 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

24.49
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
19.72
set match
Right song in the right set
6.49
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 27.8%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 33.3%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 30.3%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 26.9%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 24.5%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 20.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 15 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played12
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 198
Set 275
Encore22
Total18 15

Biggest win

Backwards Down the Number Line

The rarest song it called correctly — 2.864 bits (common). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Ass Handed

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 7.167 bits (bustout).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple10 0.0%
common85 62.5%
uncommon30 0.0%
rare20 0.0%
bustout10 0.0%

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Ass Handed 7.167 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Fast Enough for You 6.587 bits rare miss — 0.0
I Am the Walrus 5.134 bits rare miss — 0.0
Undermind 4.225 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
NICU 3.937 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 3.836 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Backwards Down the Number Line 2.864 bits common hit yes 0.801
Oblivion 2.822 bits common miss — 0.0
Ruby Waves 2.699 bits common hit yes 0.75
Back on the Train 2.647 bits common hit yes 0.818
No Men In No Man's Land 2.633 bits common miss — 0.0
Possum 2.609 bits common hit no 0.6
First Tube 2.567 bits common miss — 0.0
The Moma Dance 2.564 bits common hit yes 0.761
Carini 2.339 bits staple miss — 0.0

Predicted but not played

Limb By Limb · 3.721 bits Lonely Trip · 3.628 bits Hey Stranger · 3.088 bits Roggae · 3.029 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 2.91 bits Tube · 2.689 bits Light · 2.669 bits Sigma Oasis · 2.642 bits Down with Disease · 2.55 bits Wolfman's Brother · 2.489 bits Tweezer Reprise · 2.463 bits Chalk Dust Torture · 2.277 bits Blaze On · 2.264 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.1.0 · scored by v3.1.0 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Chalk Dust Torturein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~3)
  2. Down with Diseasein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~5)
  3. Wolfman's Brotherin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)
  4. Blaze Onin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)
  5. The Moma Dancein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~4)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Blaze On [8:57] · The Moma Dance [8:43] · Back on the Train [8:17] · Roggae [8:52] · Tube [8:01] · Wolfman's Brother [12:49] · Limb By Limb [8:17] · Hey Stranger [9:01] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44]

Set 2: Sigma Oasis [8:50] · Down with Disease [16:11] · Ruby Waves [16:13] · Light [12:53] · Lonely Trip [6:41] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:43] · Chalk Dust Torture [12:10]

Encore: Possum [9:52] · Tweezer Reprise [3:21]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Blaze On Set 1 8:57 1:50 – 13:03 15.3%
The Moma Dance Set 1 8:43 7:37 – 12:28 20.8%
Back on the Train Set 1 8:17 6:48 – 9:05 12.0%
Roggae Set 1 8:52 8:01 – 10:45 22.9%
Tube Set 1 8:01 6:11 – 12:01 22.7%
Wolfman's Brother Set 1 12:49 9:59 – 15:25 31.5%
Limb By Limb Set 1 8:17 7:07 – 10:19 8.1%
Hey Stranger Set 1 9:01 6:44 – 10:28 20.2%
Bouncing Around the Room Set 1 3:44 3:37 – 4:27 2.4%
Sigma Oasis Set 2 8:50 7:11 – 20:32 16.7%
Down with Disease Set 2 16:11 7:49 – 24:54 38.9%
Ruby Waves Set 2 16:13 11:40 – 29:51 52.0%
Light Set 2 12:53 8:38 – 20:14 23.8%
Lonely Trip Set 2 6:41 6:11 – 8:00 5.6%
Backwards Down the Number Line Set 2 7:43 6:54 – 9:26 14.4%
Chalk Dust Torture Set 2 12:10 6:56 – 25:51 48.6%
Possum Encore 9:52 8:54 – 10:40 7.3%
Tweezer Reprise Encore 3:21 3:01 – 5:32 3.6%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Makisupa Policeman · gap 148 Alumni Blues · gap 147 Letter to Jimmy Page · gap 147 The Ballad of Curtis Loew · gap 247 The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony · gap 91

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →