🍩 Phish Setlist Tracker
← 2026-07-19 · MERRIWEATHER POST PAVILION 2026-07-22 · MADISON SQUARE GARDEN →

Setlist prediction — 2026-07-21

Empower Federal Credit Union Amphitheater at Lakeview · Syracuse · Summer Tour 2026 · based on 1990 prior shows · 48 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.2.0 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · I Am Hydrogen [2:49] · Slave to the Traffic Light [9:38] ★16% · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:02] · Tube [8:52] ★23% · Wolfman's Brother [12:49] ★32% · Weekapaug Groove [7:36] · Hey Stranger [9:00] ★20% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:46]

Set 2: Mike's Song [9:15] ★23% · Chalk Dust Torture [12:05] ★47% · Down with Disease [17:11] ★36% · Tweezer [16:38] ★55% · Golden Age [11:56] ★41% · What's the Use? [7:08] · Everything's Right [12:50] ★26%

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:00] · Tweezer Reprise [3:22]

Actual — EMPOWER FEDERAL CREDIT UNION AMPHITHEATER AT LAKEVIEW

Set 1: Turtle in the Clouds [12:08] > Bug [12:48] -> Seven Below [11:41] > Ocelot [8:37] > Mull [10:44], Sigma Oasis [13:50] -> Ghost [10:46]

Set 2: Sand [18:32] > Everything's Right [12:25] > What's the Use? [7:25] > Light [15:03] > Also Sprach Zarathustra [5:54] > Blaze On [10:53] > Prince Caspian [4:59] > More [3:43] > Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:33]

Score vs. what they actually played

38.3%
Better than this share of nights
13.59/100
Raw score · median 19.3
-2.5%
Skill vs. baseline
15.68
Baseline score
3.33 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -2.5%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (3.33 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

17.09
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
12
set match
Right song in the right set
0
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 16.7%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 18.8%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 17.6%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 17.0%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 17.1%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 20.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 16 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played14
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 197
Set 279
Encore20
Total18 16

Biggest win

What's the Use?

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.885 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Turtle in the Clouds

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 5.696 bits (rare).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple30 0.0%
common72 28.6%
uncommon41 25.0%
rare20 0.0%
bustout00 —

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Turtle in the Clouds 5.696 bits rare miss — 0.0
Seven Below 5.034 bits rare miss — 0.0
Ocelot 4.438 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Mull 4.102 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Bug 3.903 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
What's the Use? 3.885 bits uncommon hit yes 0.75
More 3.043 bits common miss — 0.0
Prince Caspian 2.956 bits common miss — 0.0
Light 2.75 bits common miss — 0.0
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. 2.711 bits common hit no 0.6
Sigma Oasis 2.685 bits common miss — 0.0
Also Sprach Zarathustra 2.566 bits common miss — 0.0
Everything's Right 2.513 bits common hit yes 0.75
Sand 2.381 bits staple miss — 0.0
Ghost 2.335 bits staple miss — 0.0
Blaze On 2.307 bits staple miss — 0.0

Predicted but not played

Cars Trucks Buses · 5.688 bits I Am Hydrogen · 4.209 bits Hey Stranger · 3.182 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 2.953 bits Golden Age · 2.8 bits A Life Beyond The Dream · 2.777 bits Tube · 2.731 bits Mike's Song · 2.719 bits Weekapaug Groove · 2.705 bits Slave to the Traffic Light · 2.689 bits Down with Disease · 2.593 bits Wolfman's Brother · 2.566 bits Tweezer Reprise · 2.506 bits Chalk Dust Torture · 2.319 bits Tweezer · 2.135 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.2.0 · scored by v3.2.0 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Chalk Dust Torturein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~3)
  2. Weekapaug Groove + I Am Hydrogen + Mike's Songin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~5)
  3. Slave to the Traffic Lightin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~4)
  4. Tweezer + Tweezer Reprisein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~5)
  5. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.in heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~4)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · I Am Hydrogen [2:49] · Slave to the Traffic Light [9:38] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:02] · Tube [8:52] · Wolfman's Brother [12:49] · Weekapaug Groove [7:36] · Hey Stranger [9:00] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:46]

Set 2: Mike's Song [9:15] · Chalk Dust Torture [12:05] · Down with Disease [17:11] · Tweezer [16:38] · Golden Age [11:56] · What's the Use? [7:08] · Everything's Right [12:50]

Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:00] · Tweezer Reprise [3:22]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Cars Trucks Buses Set 1 5:37 5:29 – 6:09 5.3%
I Am Hydrogen Set 1 2:49 2:26 – 3:09 4.4%
Slave to the Traffic Light Set 1 9:38 8:09 – 11:25 15.7%
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. Set 1 6:02 4:46 – 6:28 5.1%
Tube Set 1 8:52 6:10 – 11:37 22.7%
Wolfman's Brother Set 1 12:49 10:04 – 15:03 31.5%
Weekapaug Groove Set 1 7:36 5:02 – 9:10 14.7%
Hey Stranger Set 1 9:00 6:51 – 10:25 20.2%
Bouncing Around the Room Set 1 3:46 3:37 – 14:37 2.4%
Mike's Song Set 2 9:15 7:36 – 11:45 23.1%
Chalk Dust Torture Set 2 12:05 6:53 – 25:41 46.9%
Down with Disease Set 2 17:11 7:50 – 24:31 35.9%
Tweezer Set 2 16:38 2:38 – 33:06 54.9%
Golden Age Set 2 11:56 9:21 – 18:24 40.7%
What's the Use? Set 2 7:08 5:53 – 8:38 8.3%
Everything's Right Set 2 12:50 9:09 – 16:43 26.4%
A Life Beyond The Dream Encore 8:00 7:11 – 8:18 0.9%
Tweezer Reprise Encore 3:22 3:02 – 5:43 3.6%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Makisupa Policeman · gap 149 Alumni Blues · gap 148 Letter to Jimmy Page · gap 148 The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony · gap 92 Scent of a Mule · gap 92

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →