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Setlist prediction — 2026-07-22

Madison Square Garden · New York · based on 1991 prior shows · 48 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.2.0 · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:02] ★34% · Foam [8:03] · Wolfman's Brother [12:48] ★32% · Tube [8:01] ★23% · Bathtub Gin [14:56] ★46% · Reba [12:40] ★16% · Stash [12:07] ★30% · David Bowie [11:47] ★19%

Set 2: Wilson [4:23] ★19% · Down with Disease [16:11] ★36% · Simple [13:00] ★50% · Tweezer [16:41] ★55% · Golden Age [13:00] ★41% · A Life Beyond The Dream [7:34] · Harry Hood [13:36] ★26%

Encore: Show of Life [5:42] · Tweezer Reprise [3:20]

Actual — MADISON SQUARE GARDEN

Set 1: Glide [4:03], Runaway Jim [6:57], Foam [8:10], Axilla [3:28], Stash [12:58], Cold as Ice [0:34] > Love You [3:05] > Hold Your Head Up [1:47] > Sparkle [3:46], AC/DC Bag [11:55] > Reba [11:51] > Possum [8:31] > David Bowie -> The Vibration of Life [2:54] -> David Bowie

Set 2: Mike's Song [15:16] > I Am Hydrogen [3:05] > Weekapaug Groove [7:07], Bouncing Around the Room [17:43] -> My Friend, My Friend [11:38] -> Split Open and Melt [12:52], The Lizards [9:21], Harry Hood [12:01]

Encore: The Horse [1:19] > Silent in the Morning [4:55], Big Black Furry Creature from Mars [4:23], Run Like an Antelope [10:33]

Score vs. what they actually played

★ Called the closer exactly — David Bowie · happens on 10.0% of nights

Each of these is rare on its own — the percentage is measured over the last 60 shows, so it says how unusual the call was rather than just congratulating you.

40.0%
Better than this share of nights
14.92/100
Raw score · median 19.3
11.2%
Skill vs. baseline
4.19
Baseline score
4.55 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it captured 11.2% of that headroom. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (4.55 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

15.63
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
15.63
set match
Right song in the right set
9.4
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 33.3%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 23.1%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 27.3%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 32.1%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 15.6%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 20.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 26 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played24
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 1915
Set 278
Encore24
Total18 27

Biggest win

Foam

The rarest song it called correctly — 4.369 bits (uncommon). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Cold as Ice

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 8.844 bits (bustout).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple21 50.0%
common114 36.4%
uncommon31 33.3%
rare60 0.0%
bustout40 0.0%

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Cold as Ice 8.844 bits bustout miss — 0.0
The Vibration of Life 8.844 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Love You 8.815 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Glide 8.225 bits bustout miss — 0.0
Hold Your Head Up 6.531 bits rare miss — 0.0
Big Black Furry Creature from Mars 6.523 bits rare miss — 0.0
Axilla 6.049 bits rare miss — 0.0
Sparkle 5.791 bits rare miss — 0.0
The Horse 5.157 bits rare miss — 0.0
Silent in the Morning 5.107 bits rare miss — 0.0
Foam 4.369 bits uncommon hit yes 0.818
I Am Hydrogen 3.976 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
The Lizards 3.583 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
David Bowie 3.275 bits common hit yes 1.0
Runaway Jim 3.086 bits common miss — 0.0
AC/DC Bag 3.081 bits common hit yes 0.75
Bouncing Around the Room 2.959 bits common miss — 0.0
Reba 2.953 bits common hit yes 0.839
Split Open and Melt 2.95 bits common miss — 0.0
My Friend, My Friend 2.832 bits common miss — 0.0
Mike's Song 2.687 bits common miss — 0.0
Weekapaug Groove 2.671 bits common miss — 0.0
Run Like an Antelope 2.623 bits common miss — 0.0
Stash 2.601 bits common hit yes 0.75
Possum 2.478 bits staple miss — 0.0
Harry Hood 2.203 bits staple hit yes 1.0

Predicted but not played

Show of Life · 6.813 bits Cars Trucks Buses · 5.456 bits Wilson · 3.36 bits Golden Age · 2.781 bits Simple · 2.78 bits A Life Beyond The Dream · 2.754 bits Tube · 2.701 bits Bathtub Gin · 2.576 bits Down with Disease · 2.543 bits Wolfman's Brother · 2.512 bits Tweezer Reprise · 2.482 bits Tweezer · 2.239 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model v3.2.0 · scored by v3.2.0 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Down with Diseasein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~5)
  2. Tweezer + Tweezer Reprisein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~5)
  3. Stashin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~5)
  4. Wolfman's Brotherin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 8 (usual ~4)
  5. Bathtub Ginin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · AC/DC Bag [9:02] · Foam [8:03] · Wolfman's Brother [12:48] · Tube [8:01] · Bathtub Gin [14:56] · Reba [12:40] · Stash [12:07] · David Bowie [11:47]

Set 2: Wilson [4:23] · Down with Disease [16:11] · Simple [13:00] · Tweezer [16:41] · Golden Age [13:00] · A Life Beyond The Dream [7:34] · Harry Hood [13:36]

Encore: Show of Life [5:42] · Tweezer Reprise [3:20]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Cars Trucks Buses Set 1 5:37 5:29 – 6:09 5.3%
AC/DC Bag Set 1 9:02 5:41 – 10:29 34.1%
Foam Set 1 8:03 7:27 – 8:23 9.3%
Wolfman's Brother Set 1 12:48 9:58 – 15:26 31.5%
Tube Set 1 8:01 6:11 – 12:01 22.7%
Bathtub Gin Set 1 14:56 11:42 – 20:41 45.6%
Reba Set 1 12:40 11:32 – 13:45 16.1%
Stash Set 1 12:07 10:18 – 15:30 30.4%
David Bowie Set 1 11:47 9:15 – 14:41 18.7%
Wilson Set 2 4:23 3:46 – 4:49 19.2%
Down with Disease Set 2 16:11 7:49 – 24:54 35.9%
Simple Set 2 13:00 1:49 – 35:35 49.8%
Tweezer Set 2 16:41 2:37 – 32:05 54.9%
Golden Age Set 2 13:00 8:54 – 18:39 40.7%
A Life Beyond The Dream Set 2 7:34 7:15 – 9:31 7.9%
Harry Hood Set 2 13:36 10:54 – 17:58 25.8%
Show of Life Encore 5:42 5:27 – 6:21 1.9%
Tweezer Reprise Encore 3:20 3:01 – 5:33 3.6%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Alumni Blues · gap 149 Letter to Jimmy Page · gap 149 The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony · gap 93 Scent of a Mule · gap 93 The Ballad of Curtis Loew · gap 249

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →