🍩 Phish Setlist Tracker
← 2026-07-14 · ENMARKET ARENA 2026-07-17 · COASTAL CREDIT UNION MUSIC PARK AT WALNUT CREEK →

Setlist prediction — 2026-07-15

ENMARKET ARENA · Savannah · based on 1986 prior shows · 46 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · actual setlist known

Predicted vs. actual

Predicted

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:23] · The Moma Dance [8:43] ★21% · Back on the Train [8:17] · Roggae [8:52] ★23% · Tube [8:36] ★21% · Wolfman's Brother [12:52] ★31% · Limb By Limb [8:28] · Hey Stranger [9:02] ★21% · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44]

Set 2: No Men In No Man's Land [10:54] ★29% · Ruby Waves [16:19] ★53% · Fuego [16:54] ★50% · Crosseyed and Painless [13:27] ★45% · Twist [10:10] ★26% · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:42] · Character Zero [6:44]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:46] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:51]

Actual — ENMARKET ARENA

Set 1: Dinner and a Movie [4:05], Vultures [13:01], Taste [8:15], The Wedge [29:06] > Pebbles and Marbles [8:19], Divided Sky [12:50], Halley's Comet [8:30], Drift While You're Sleeping [11:40]

Set 2: Sightless Escape [21:38], A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing [16:28] > Crosseyed and Painless [15:54] > Farmhouse [5:44], Scents and Subtle Sounds [16:20] > Ghost [11:16]

Encore: Rock and Roll [8:01]

Score vs. what they actually played

6.7%
Better than this share of nights
5.18/100
Raw score · median 19.3
-14.4%
Skill vs. baseline
17.14
Baseline score
4.03 bits
Difficulty

The raw score is graded against a perfect setlist call, which never happens. Phish rotate deliberately and go out of their way to be unpredictable, so 100 is unreachable — over the last 60 shows the score runs from about 2 to 42.09, with a median near 19.3. That is why the headline ranks this night against the ones actually achieved rather than against an imaginary ceiling. The number that means something is Skill: how much of the headroom above a baseline that just guesses the most-played songs this prediction captured. 0% is “no better than guessing the hits”; anything above it is real signal. On this night it came out -14.4%: the model did worse than the baseline, i.e. its cleverness actively cost it against simply guessing the hits. Difficulty is the average rarity of the songs they actually played (4.03 bits) — a night of deep cuts scores lower for the same skill, which is why the headline is normalised against a perfect prediction of this show.

Sub-scores

5.72
selection
Right songs, ignoring where they landed
5.72
set match
Right song in the right set
4.04
proximity
Right song, right set, near the right slot

Each is out of 100 and rarity-weighted: picking the song at all earns the most, putting it in the right set earns more, landing it near the right slot earns the rest.

Precision & recall

MetricValueWhat it means
precision 5.6%
Of what it predicted, how much got played
recall 6.7%
Of what got played, how much it predicted
f1 6.1%
Harmonic mean of the two
precision (rarity-weighted) 6.9%
Precision, weighted by how rare each song is
recall (rarity-weighted) 5.7%
Recall, weighted by how rare each song is
top5 hit rate 20.0%
Of the top-5 shortlist, how much got played

18 songs predicted, 15 played. The rarity-weighted variants are the interesting ones: calling a warhorse is easy, calling a bustout is not, and the weighted numbers pay out accordingly.

Sequence

Adjacent pairs called right 0 of 15 predicted
Adjacent pairs actually played12
Longest correct run 1 song

Getting two songs adjacent in the right order is much harder than getting both somewhere in the show.

Structure

SetPredictedActual
Set 198
Set 276
Encore21
Total18 15

Biggest win

Crosseyed and Painless

The rarest song it called correctly — 3.463 bits (common). Right set, too.

Biggest miss

Dinner and a Movie

The rarest song it didn't see coming — 6.976 bits (rare).

By rarity

How it did across rarity bands. The warhorses are supposed to be easy; the deep cuts are where a model earns its keep.

TierPlayedCalledHit rate
staple10 0.0%
common51 20.0%
uncommon70 0.0%
rare20 0.0%
bustout00 —

Song by song

Everything they played, rarest first.

SongRarityTierCalled?Right set?Credit
Dinner and a Movie 6.976 bits rare miss — 0.0
Sightless Escape 6.034 bits rare miss — 0.0
Vultures 4.377 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Rock and Roll 4.216 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Farmhouse 4.174 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Pebbles and Marbles 4.107 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing 4.085 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Scents and Subtle Sounds 3.826 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
The Wedge 3.704 bits uncommon miss — 0.0
Crosseyed and Painless 3.463 bits common hit yes 0.821
Halley's Comet 3.379 bits common miss — 0.0
Divided Sky 3.317 bits common miss — 0.0
Taste 3.299 bits common miss — 0.0
Drift While You're Sleeping 3.292 bits common miss — 0.0
Ghost 2.248 bits staple miss — 0.0

Predicted but not played

Limb By Limb · 3.9 bits Buried Alive · 3.657 bits Hey Stranger · 3.09 bits Roggae · 3.02 bits Bouncing Around the Room · 2.879 bits Backwards Down the Number Line · 2.774 bits Ruby Waves · 2.631 bits Tube · 2.577 bits Twist · 2.557 bits No Men In No Man's Land · 2.556 bits Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. · 2.554 bits Back on the Train · 2.53 bits Slave to the Traffic Light · 2.529 bits Character Zero · 2.49 bits The Moma Dance · 2.477 bits Fuego · 2.46 bits Wolfman's Brother · 2.393 bits

Reported, but never subtracted from the headline: penalising bold calls by rarity would teach the model that rare songs are never worth predicting, which is the opposite of what this is for.

Predicted by model vpre-1.1 · scored by v3.1.0 rules.

Top 5 most likely songs

  1. Chalk Dust Torturein heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 5 (usual ~2)
  2. Harry Hoodin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 4 (usual ~3)
  3. Ghostin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 5 (usual ~3)
  4. Possumin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 4 (usual ~2)
  5. Blaze Onin heavy recent rotation; played on this date before; gap 3 (usual ~3)

Predicted full setlist

Set 1: Buried Alive [3:23] · The Moma Dance [8:43] · Back on the Train [8:17] · Roggae [8:52] · Tube [8:36] · Wolfman's Brother [12:52] · Limb By Limb [8:28] · Hey Stranger [9:02] · Bouncing Around the Room [3:44]

Set 2: No Men In No Man's Land [10:54] · Ruby Waves [16:19] · Fuego [16:54] · Crosseyed and Painless [13:27] · Twist [10:10] · Backwards Down the Number Line [7:42] · Character Zero [6:44]

Encore: Slave to the Traffic Light [9:46] · Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [5:51]

Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.

Predicted lengths & jam odds

SongSetLikely lengthRange (q10–q90)P(jam chart)
Buried Alive Set 1 3:23 2:40 – 4:02 3.1%
The Moma Dance Set 1 8:43 7:39 – 12:12 20.9%
Back on the Train Set 1 8:17 6:49 – 8:59 11.9%
Roggae Set 1 8:52 8:03 – 10:50 22.9%
Tube Set 1 8:36 6:14 – 11:54 20.6%
Wolfman's Brother Set 1 12:52 10:04 – 15:03 31.2%
Limb By Limb Set 1 8:28 7:12 – 10:21 12.2%
Hey Stranger Set 1 9:02 6:46 – 10:27 21.4%
Bouncing Around the Room Set 1 3:44 3:37 – 7:29 1.5%
No Men In No Man's Land Set 2 10:54 6:43 – 15:07 28.9%
Ruby Waves Set 2 16:19 13:40 – 29:43 53.0%
Fuego Set 2 16:54 8:05 – 30:17 50.0%
Crosseyed and Painless Set 2 13:27 8:12 – 19:05 44.9%
Twist Set 2 10:10 7:52 – 14:25 25.6%
Backwards Down the Number Line Set 2 7:42 6:57 – 9:26 13.1%
Character Zero Set 2 6:44 5:41 – 7:25 14.7%
Slave to the Traffic Light Encore 9:46 8:33 – 10:36 7.7%
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. Encore 5:51 5:31 – 6:34 1.1%

Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.

Bustout watch

Jam · gap 450 Take the 'A' Train · gap 1324 La Grange · gap 528 Love You · gap 379 Terrapin · gap 250

Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →