Setlist prediction — 2026-07-31
· Summer Tour 2026 · based on 2000 prior shows · 56 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:36] ★20% · Back on the Train [8:18] · Roggae [8:52] ★23% · Ya Mar [7:21] · Kill Devil Falls [11:04] ★26% · Limb By Limb [8:28] · Hey Stranger [9:00] ★26% · Plasma [8:11] ★20%
Set 2: Carini [13:55] ★44% · No Men In No Man's Land [9:26] ★29% · Fuego [19:14] ★49% · Life Saving Gun [13:48] ★42% · Twist [10:13] ★31% · Ruby Waves [16:07] ★50% · Ghost [11:47] ★24%
Encore: Grind [2:16] · First Tube [7:17]
Actual — FENWAY PARK
Set 1: Carini [17:54], Everything's Right [13:19] -> Back on the Train [6:59], Free [8:26], Kill Devil Falls [13:12], Harry Hood [13:37]
Set 2: What's Going Through Your Mind [19:39] > Fuego [15:40] > Melt the Guns [15:57], A Wave of Hope [13:15] > Golden Age [6:42] -> Run Like an Antelope [12:13]
Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:25], Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. [6:20]
Top 5 most likely songs
- Twistdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 14 (usual ~6)
- Kill Devil Fallsdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 14 (usual ~4)
- Roggaedue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 13 (usual ~6)
- Back on the Trainin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 6 (usual ~4)
- Life Saving Gunin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~5)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:36] · Back on the Train [8:18] · Roggae [8:52] · Ya Mar [7:21] · Kill Devil Falls [11:04] · Limb By Limb [8:28] · Hey Stranger [9:00] · Plasma [8:11]
Set 2: Carini [13:55] · No Men In No Man's Land [9:26] · Fuego [19:14] · Life Saving Gun [13:48] · Twist [10:13] · Ruby Waves [16:07] · Ghost [11:47]
Encore: Grind [2:16] · First Tube [7:17]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cars Trucks Buses | Set 1 | 5:37 | 5:29 – 6:09 |
5.4%
|
| The Moma Dance | Set 1 | 8:36 | 7:07 – 11:46 |
20.1%
|
| Back on the Train | Set 1 | 8:18 | 7:03 – 10:39 |
11.6%
|
| Roggae | Set 1 | 8:52 | 8:02 – 10:41 |
23.0%
|
| Ya Mar | Set 1 | 7:21 | 6:32 – 9:01 |
4.4%
|
| Kill Devil Falls | Set 1 | 11:04 | 7:46 – 14:52 |
26.3%
|
| Limb By Limb | Set 1 | 8:28 | 6:53 – 10:49 |
8.2%
|
| Hey Stranger | Set 1 | 9:00 | 6:51 – 10:25 |
25.7%
|
| Plasma | Set 1 | 8:11 | 7:09 – 13:43 |
19.6%
|
| Carini | Set 2 | 13:55 | 7:15 – 36:38 |
44.0%
|
| No Men In No Man's Land | Set 2 | 9:26 | 6:13 – 15:13 |
28.7%
|
| Fuego | Set 2 | 19:14 | 10:07 – 25:46 |
49.4%
|
| Life Saving Gun | Set 2 | 13:48 | 10:47 – 23:45 |
42.2%
|
| Twist | Set 2 | 10:13 | 7:48 – 14:08 |
31.3%
|
| Ruby Waves | Set 2 | 16:07 | 13:13 – 28:59 |
49.7%
|
| Ghost | Set 2 | 11:47 | 9:22 – 16:35 |
24.3%
|
| Grind | Encore | 2:16 | 1:50 – 2:43 |
1.8%
|
| First Tube | Encore | 7:17 | 6:31 – 8:04 |
0.8%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →