Setlist prediction — 2026-07-29
· Summer Tour 2026 · based on 1999 prior shows · 60 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:36] ★20% · Back on the Train [8:19] · Cities [16:17] ★44% · Leaves [10:29] · Kill Devil Falls [11:04] ★26% · Dirt [5:58] · Oblivion [15:53] ★35% · Miss You [7:16]
Set 2: Set Your Soul Free [16:30] ★39% · Golden Age [11:53] ★39% · Fuego [19:14] ★49% · Crosseyed and Painless [14:07] ★51% · Twist [10:11] ★31% · Piper [12:21] ★43% · Character Zero [6:41] ★17%
Encore: Waste [5:43] · First Tube [7:17]
Actual — MADISON SQUARE GARDEN
Set 1: The Star-Spangled Banner [1:45], McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters [8:50] > Axilla (Part II) [11:30] > Esther [9:14], Guyute [10:22], Talk [3:59], If I Could [5:57], Bold As Love [6:28], Colonel Forbin's Ascent [5:39] > Fly Famous Mockingbird [7:20], Harpua [14:17]
Set 2: You Enjoy Myself [36:26] > Waste [7:14], I Didn't Know [2:08] > Suspicious Minds [4:04] > Hold Your Head Up [0:55], Crosseyed and Painless [31:35] > Character Zero [6:25]
Encore: A Day in the Life [5:01], Backwards Down the Number Line [6:45]
Top 5 most likely songs
- Fuegoin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~5)
- Twistdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 13 (usual ~6)
- Kill Devil Fallsdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 13 (usual ~4)
- Wastedue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 13 (usual ~7)
- Character Zeroin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~4)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:36] · Back on the Train [8:19] · Cities [16:17] · Leaves [10:29] · Kill Devil Falls [11:04] · Dirt [5:58] · Oblivion [15:53] · Miss You [7:16]
Set 2: Set Your Soul Free [16:30] · Golden Age [11:53] · Fuego [19:14] · Crosseyed and Painless [14:07] · Twist [10:11] · Piper [12:21] · Character Zero [6:41]
Encore: Waste [5:43] · First Tube [7:17]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cars Trucks Buses | Set 1 | 5:37 | 5:29 – 6:09 |
5.4%
|
| The Moma Dance | Set 1 | 8:36 | 7:07 – 11:45 |
20.1%
|
| Back on the Train | Set 1 | 8:19 | 7:04 – 10:39 |
11.6%
|
| Cities | Set 1 | 16:17 | 6:12 – 19:05 |
44.4%
|
| Leaves | Set 1 | 10:29 | 7:26 – 16:41 |
10.2%
|
| Kill Devil Falls | Set 1 | 11:04 | 7:46 – 14:52 |
26.3%
|
| Dirt | Set 1 | 5:58 | 2:13 – 12:25 |
6.2%
|
| Oblivion | Set 1 | 15:53 | 6:50 – 19:46 |
34.6%
|
| Miss You | Set 1 | 7:16 | 6:06 – 8:11 |
9.0%
|
| Set Your Soul Free | Set 2 | 16:30 | 9:47 – 24:02 |
39.4%
|
| Golden Age | Set 2 | 11:53 | 9:12 – 18:27 |
38.9%
|
| Fuego | Set 2 | 19:14 | 10:07 – 25:46 |
49.4%
|
| Crosseyed and Painless | Set 2 | 14:07 | 8:21 – 18:00 |
50.9%
|
| Twist | Set 2 | 10:11 | 7:47 – 14:01 |
31.3%
|
| Piper | Set 2 | 12:21 | 7:14 – 16:14 |
42.8%
|
| Character Zero | Set 2 | 6:41 | 5:38 – 7:24 |
16.6%
|
| Waste | Encore | 5:43 | 5:28 – 5:58 |
1.6%
|
| First Tube | Encore | 7:17 | 6:31 – 8:04 |
0.8%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →