Setlist prediction — 2026-07-27
· Summer Tour 2026 · based on 1998 prior shows · 66 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: 46 Days [8:54] ★28% · Evolve [6:46] · Theme from the Bottom [10:36] ★25% · Funky Bitch [6:46] · Roggae [8:52] ★23% · Ya Mar [7:21] · Mountains in the Mist [6:56] · Taste [7:49] · Character Zero [6:58] ★16%
Set 2: Set Your Soul Free [16:30] ★39% · Fuego [19:14] ★49% · Golden Age [11:56] ★41% · Lonely Trip [6:42] · Crosseyed and Painless [14:07] ★51% · Pillow Jets [9:37] ★47% · You Enjoy Myself [20:13] ★30%
Encore: Grind [2:16] · Wilson [4:07]
Actual — MADISON SQUARE GARDEN
Set 1: Wilson [5:08] > Timber (Jerry the Mule) [15:23], Ha Ha Ha [1:42], Scent of a Mule [7:16], Theme from the Bottom [10:49], Halley's Comet [15:30] -> The Man Who Stepped Into Yesterday [4:09] > Avenu Malkenu [3:13], NICU [5:01], Funky Bitch [6:17], Taste [10:27]
Set 2: The Curtain With [12:41] > Prince Caspian [15:58] > Drowned [28:56] > Billy Breathes [5:04] > It's Ice [15:08], Johnny B. Goode [4:31], Free [10:14]
Encore: Strange Design [2:55], Loving Cup [7:24]
Top 5 most likely songs
- 46 Daysin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~5)
- Evolvedue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 9 (usual ~5)
- Wilsondue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 9 (usual ~5)
- Set Your Soul Freedue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 18 (usual ~7)
- Pillow Jetsdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 9 (usual ~5)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: 46 Days [8:54] · Evolve [6:46] · Theme from the Bottom [10:36] · Funky Bitch [6:46] · Roggae [8:52] · Ya Mar [7:21] · Mountains in the Mist [6:56] · Taste [7:49] · Character Zero [6:58]
Set 2: Set Your Soul Free [16:30] · Fuego [19:14] · Golden Age [11:56] · Lonely Trip [6:42] · Crosseyed and Painless [14:07] · Pillow Jets [9:37] · You Enjoy Myself [20:13]
Encore: Grind [2:16] · Wilson [4:07]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 Days | Set 1 | 8:54 | 7:21 – 13:13 |
28.5%
|
| Evolve | Set 1 | 6:46 | 5:51 – 10:47 |
2.5%
|
| Theme from the Bottom | Set 1 | 10:36 | 8:28 – 13:39 |
24.8%
|
| Funky Bitch | Set 1 | 6:46 | 5:59 – 8:00 |
10.3%
|
| Roggae | Set 1 | 8:52 | 8:02 – 10:41 |
22.9%
|
| Ya Mar | Set 1 | 7:21 | 6:32 – 9:01 |
4.3%
|
| Mountains in the Mist | Set 1 | 6:56 | 6:33 – 8:18 |
4.0%
|
| Taste | Set 1 | 7:49 | 7:06 – 8:09 |
4.2%
|
| Character Zero | Set 1 | 6:58 | 6:03 – 15:44 |
15.7%
|
| Set Your Soul Free | Set 2 | 16:30 | 9:47 – 24:02 |
39.4%
|
| Fuego | Set 2 | 19:14 | 10:07 – 25:46 |
49.4%
|
| Golden Age | Set 2 | 11:56 | 9:21 – 18:24 |
40.8%
|
| Lonely Trip | Set 2 | 6:42 | 6:01 – 8:00 |
5.6%
|
| Crosseyed and Painless | Set 2 | 14:07 | 8:21 – 18:00 |
50.9%
|
| Pillow Jets | Set 2 | 9:37 | 7:07 – 13:25 |
47.2%
|
| You Enjoy Myself | Set 2 | 20:13 | 16:50 – 25:06 |
29.6%
|
| Grind | Encore | 2:16 | 1:50 – 2:43 |
1.7%
|
| Wilson | Encore | 4:07 | 3:58 – 4:51 |
1.1%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →