Setlist prediction — 2026-07-25
· Summer Tour 2026 · based on 1997 prior shows · 65 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: 46 Days [8:54] ★28% · Evolve [6:46] · Rift [6:29] · Wolfman's Brother [12:49] ★30% · Timber (Jerry the Mule) [8:41] ★27% · 555 [7:16] ★18% · Dirt [5:58] · Punch You in the Eye [11:18] ★26% · Theme from the Bottom [10:37] ★25%
Set 2: Simple [13:56] ★50% · Tweezer [16:38] ★53% · Golden Age [11:56] ★41% · Lonely Trip [6:42] · Crosseyed and Painless [14:07] ★51% · Twist [10:11] ★29% · Piper [12:21] ★40%
Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:02] · Tweezer Reprise [3:22]
Actual — MADISON SQUARE GARDEN
Set 1: Back in the U.S.S.R. [5:09], Simple [20:04], Rift [6:00], Punch You in the Eye [11:34] > Wolfman's Brother [6:44]
Set 2: Highway to Hell [3:30], Down with Disease -> Tweezer -> Down with Disease > Tweezer > Sample in a Jar [3:36] > Tweezer -> Lifeboy [6:17], Julius [7:54] > Tweezer -> Catapult [1:24] -> Tweezer > Cavern [9:32] -> Tweezer > The Squirming Coil [8:40]
Encore: Purple Rain [9:14], Tweezer Reprise [3:20]
Top 5 most likely songs
- Tweezer + Tweezer Reprisein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~5)
- A Life Beyond The Dreamin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~3)
- Piperin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~6)
- Golden Agein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~6)
- Theme from the Bottomin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 9 (usual ~6)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: 46 Days [8:54] · Evolve [6:46] · Rift [6:29] · Wolfman's Brother [12:49] · Timber (Jerry the Mule) [8:41] · 555 [7:16] · Dirt [5:58] · Punch You in the Eye [11:18] · Theme from the Bottom [10:37]
Set 2: Simple [13:56] · Tweezer [16:38] · Golden Age [11:56] · Lonely Trip [6:42] · Crosseyed and Painless [14:07] · Twist [10:11] · Piper [12:21]
Encore: A Life Beyond The Dream [8:02] · Tweezer Reprise [3:22]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 Days | Set 1 | 8:54 | 7:21 – 13:13 |
28.5%
|
| Evolve | Set 1 | 6:46 | 5:51 – 10:47 |
2.6%
|
| Rift | Set 1 | 6:29 | 6:08 – 6:52 |
2.2%
|
| Wolfman's Brother | Set 1 | 12:49 | 10:04 – 15:03 |
30.4%
|
| Timber (Jerry the Mule) | Set 1 | 8:41 | 6:35 – 11:15 |
26.7%
|
| 555 | Set 1 | 7:16 | 5:35 – 10:46 |
18.4%
|
| Dirt | Set 1 | 5:58 | 2:13 – 12:09 |
6.0%
|
| Punch You in the Eye | Set 1 | 11:18 | 8:35 – 13:24 |
25.8%
|
| Theme from the Bottom | Set 1 | 10:37 | 8:29 – 13:40 |
24.8%
|
| Simple | Set 2 | 13:56 | 1:57 – 37:53 |
49.7%
|
| Tweezer | Set 2 | 16:38 | 2:37 – 33:08 |
53.3%
|
| Golden Age | Set 2 | 11:56 | 9:21 – 18:24 |
40.7%
|
| Lonely Trip | Set 2 | 6:42 | 6:01 – 8:00 |
5.6%
|
| Crosseyed and Painless | Set 2 | 14:07 | 8:21 – 18:00 |
50.8%
|
| Twist | Set 2 | 10:11 | 7:47 – 14:01 |
28.6%
|
| Piper | Set 2 | 12:21 | 7:14 – 16:14 |
40.5%
|
| A Life Beyond The Dream | Encore | 8:02 | 7:08 – 8:15 |
0.9%
|
| Tweezer Reprise | Encore | 3:22 | 3:01 – 5:43 |
3.4%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →