Setlist prediction — 2026-08-01
· Summer Tour 2026 · based on 2001 prior shows · 53 recently-played songs rotation-suppressed · model v3.4.1 · actual setlist known
Predicted vs. actual
Predicted
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:36] ★20% · Cities [16:17] ★44% · Leaves [10:29] · 555 [7:16] ★18% · Dirt [5:58] · Oblivion [15:53] ★35% · Monsters [7:29] · Life Saving Gun [12:47] ★30%
Set 2: Sand [14:51] ★45% · Ruby Waves [16:07] ★50% · No Men In No Man's Land [9:28] ★29% · Twist [10:13] ★31% · Lonely Trip [6:42] · The Howling [7:01] · Ghost [11:47] ★24%
Encore: When the Circus Comes [5:06] · First Tube [7:17]
Actual — FENWAY PARK
Set 1: My Friend, My Friend [6:01] -> Tweezer -> Sigma Oasis [16:38] > Tweezer > Chalk Dust Torture [9:37] > Stash [9:21] -> Tweezer > Sand [13:18]
Set 2: Mike's Song [9:08] > Ruby Waves [17:59] > No Men In No Man's Land [13:24] > Light [15:57] > Weekapaug Groove [5:16], Ghost [16:40] > Possum [7:14]
Encore: Wading in the Velvet Sea [4:14], Character Zero [6:38] > Tweezer Reprise [3:57]
Top 5 most likely songs
- First Tubein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~4)
- The Moma Dancein heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~4)
- Twistdue back by gap; in heavy recent rotation; gap 15 (usual ~6)
- Oblivionin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~5)
- Ruby Wavesin heavy recent rotation; due back by gap; gap 7 (usual ~5)
Predicted full setlist
Set 1: Cars Trucks Buses [5:37] · The Moma Dance [8:36] · Cities [16:17] · Leaves [10:29] · 555 [7:16] · Dirt [5:58] · Oblivion [15:53] · Monsters [7:29] · Life Saving Gun [12:47]
Set 2: Sand [14:51] · Ruby Waves [16:07] · No Men In No Man's Land [9:28] · Twist [10:13] · Lonely Trip [6:42] · The Howling [7:01] · Ghost [11:47]
Encore: When the Circus Comes [5:06] · First Tube [7:17]
Ordering is heuristic (openers/encore placed by role); treat it as a likely song pool with structure, not an exact sequence.
Predicted lengths & jam odds
| Song | Set | Likely length | Range (q10–q90) | P(jam chart) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cars Trucks Buses | Set 1 | 5:37 | 5:29 – 6:09 |
5.4%
|
| The Moma Dance | Set 1 | 8:36 | 7:07 – 11:46 |
20.1%
|
| Cities | Set 1 | 16:17 | 6:12 – 19:05 |
44.4%
|
| Leaves | Set 1 | 10:29 | 7:26 – 16:41 |
10.2%
|
| 555 | Set 1 | 7:16 | 5:35 – 10:46 |
18.5%
|
| Dirt | Set 1 | 5:58 | 2:12 – 12:19 |
6.2%
|
| Oblivion | Set 1 | 15:53 | 6:51 – 19:46 |
34.6%
|
| Monsters | Set 1 | 7:29 | 6:23 – 8:19 |
7.8%
|
| Life Saving Gun | Set 1 | 12:47 | 9:41 – 18:52 |
29.8%
|
| Sand | Set 2 | 14:51 | 9:10 – 18:40 |
45.1%
|
| Ruby Waves | Set 2 | 16:07 | 13:13 – 28:59 |
49.7%
|
| No Men In No Man's Land | Set 2 | 9:28 | 6:13 – 15:14 |
28.7%
|
| Twist | Set 2 | 10:13 | 7:48 – 14:08 |
31.3%
|
| Lonely Trip | Set 2 | 6:42 | 6:01 – 8:00 |
5.7%
|
| The Howling | Set 2 | 7:01 | 4:42 – 12:46 |
10.9%
|
| Ghost | Set 2 | 11:47 | 9:22 – 16:35 |
24.3%
|
| When the Circus Comes | Encore | 5:06 | 4:35 – 5:26 |
2.5%
|
| First Tube | Encore | 7:17 | 6:31 – 8:04 |
0.8%
|
Lengths are recency-weighted medians conditioned on the set — the q10–q90 band is where the honesty lives. P(jam chart) is the chance curators later flag this version; it is deliberately estimated from curated history only, since the last year of shows hasn't been written up yet.
Bustout watch
Model backtest: top-5 hit rate 39.5%, setlist recall 31.4% over 40 shows. Full scoring history →